ATLETICO MADRID V LIVERPOOL BETTING TIPS | EUROPA LEAGUE BETTING

ATLETICO MADRID V LIVERPOOL Betting Tips (Europa League Apr 22):
I did mention on Facebook that Atletico Madrid looked good value betting tips to beat a Liverpool team that must be drained after their journey but with Sergio Aguero out of the clash, 6/4 is actually a little bit skinny for me, even if Atletico Madrid old boy Fernando Torres will also miss out for Liverpool...

So I'd advise the win-draw-win to be left alone altogether and with 2 of the main goal threats out of the game there's no value on the over 2.5 goals either. Diego Forlan has a good scoring record against Liverpool but he's had a poor season by his standards so there's only 1 standout value bet tip for me in tonight's Europa league game and that's Torres' understudy David Ngog in the goal scoring markets. I presume he's got to start(although I'd advise to make sure before betting as Benitez is very strange). Atletico Madrid's defense can be shambolic at the best of times, especially against pace when they push forward at home and Ngog who is in decent form may look to make a name for himself on the big stage.

Selections Offering Value: ( % = My estimated win expectation, please note)
Remember: A Betfair Exchange betting account is needed to get the biggest odds and maximise your winnings from a lot of tips on Nic's Picks.

Pick 1: David Ngog anytime goal scorer @ 3.85 Betfair, 45% | David Ngog to score a brace @ 17/1 (Paddypower), David Ngog to hit a hat-trick @ 80/1 (general)

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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