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Premiership / La Liga Value Bets Mar 13-14

The chase for the English premiership league title hots up this weekend as all 3 of the chasing sides have what look like easy wins on paper with Man UTD vs Fulham, Chelsea vs Westham in a London derby and Arsenal traveling to Hull, likely to be without Fabregas. Arsenal and UTD are flying off the back of big European football wins and it would hardly be surprising to see Rooney and Bendtner continue where they left off but value is thin in the anytime scorer markets on those 2 so better left alone. Same story in the Chelsea game where nothing stands out in terms of value betting.

Elsewhere in the English Premiership, Everton travel to Birmingham where there could be some value in backing the over 2.5 @ odds against and Spurs resume their battle for 4th against Blackburn. City travel to Sunderland where the hosts have regained some form, beating Bolton 4-0 midweek with a Darrent Bent hattrick.

In The Spanish football betting nothing appeals at all on saturday night or early Sunday but Villarreal vs Xerez, Valladolid vs Real Madrid and the game of the Spanish Football weekend - Barcelona vs Valencia all look like good matches with potential for goals..... stay tuned for expert value premiership / La Liga betting picks......

Premiership Football Value Bets:

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(u= units(pts) scale 1-5, % = win expection of value bets)

- 2.75u Birmingham vs Everton over 2.5 goals @ 7/5(price change) (Betfair ) Everton have adopted a new attacking approach in recent weeks with only 1 holding midfielder in Heitinga and Cameron Jerome has found his shooting boots for Birmingham - 55-60%

- 3.25u Spurs vs Blackburn corners over 11 @ 1/1 (Skybet - book change) Spurs last 2 home games have yielded 16 corners each wheras Blackburn have been averaging about 6 corners on the road recently - 70%

£20 fixed odds and up to £200 free spread bets at Extrabet




La Liga Football Value Bets:

- 3.5u Villarreal vs Xerez over 2.5 goals @ 10/13(Betfair ) Xerez have found some form in the attacking department of late and always conceed goals. Could be fairly open game - 70-75%

- 3.25u Valladolid vs Real Madrid goal line over 2.75 @ 7/10(Betdaq) Expect Madrid to bounce back from champions league elimation against a side that have been tinkered with a lot formation wise over the last few weeks. Manucho and Costa provide a thread for the home side also - 75%

- 4u Barcelona vs Valencia goal line over 3.0 @ 1/1 (betdaq) Game of the weekend looks like a goalfest on paper. Henry should come in for Zlatan. Messi and Villa will go head to head in the race for Spain's top goalscorer

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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