Golf Betting: Trophée Hassan II Picks

Pro-am format, not much course form to go on but we will be avoiding the short hitters in this week's Trophée Hassan II golf betting as the main course(Red) measures over 7,300 yards long with little run out on fairways due to the soft conditions. Bigger hitters will be looking to take advantage of the 5 par 5's.

Expert Trophée Hassan II Value picks:

IMPORTANT: Recommended sportsbooks for golf betting with Nic's Picks: - generally better value prices for the market leaders. Extrabet - The only sportsbook to pay out in full for place ties. Free bets at both.

(u = stakes in units(pts)

- 1.25u E/W Francesco Molinari @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) Wouldn't normally back the bookie's favourite but 16/1 represents value as whatever way I look at it, I can't see Molinari NOT featuring.

- 1u E/W Peter Lawrie @ 35/1 (Ladbrokes) Lawrie is just sneaking into form this season and really enjoys events like this one.

- 1u E/W Ryhs Davies @ 33/1 (general) On my shortlist this year as one to watch and played superbly in Malaysia 2 weeks ago. Hits it a long way and a win is surely around the corner.

- 1u E/W Danny Willett @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Willett falls into the same bracket as Davies in terms of a young twenty something with the golfing world at his feet

- 0.75u E/W Mark Brown @ 125/1 (general) Brown is a streaky player who can be great or terrible and there are signs he's getting back towards the former after a superb final round in Malaysia. Pro am format should suit.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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