Golf Betting: Transitions Championships Picks

It's another of the toughest courses of the year in this week's PGA Tour golf as the Florida swing hits The Transitions Championship (formerly known as Pods). Scoring is always high relative to par on the Copperhead course which ranked 9th in difficulty last year and birdies are in very short supply. Market leader Steve Stricker is a justified favourite but the players just behind him in the betting are up for debate as this course demands accuracy from tee to green.

The Copperhead course at Innisbrook, host of the Transitions Championship plays over 7,300 yards long and key this week as well as GIR% and driving accuracy, will be par 3 performance. The course has 5 par 3's and whoever can score well over those 20 holes will have a big advantage. That brings Kenny Perry to mind..... stay tuned for Transitions Championship expert value picks....

IMPORTANT: Recommended sportsbooks for golf betting with Nic's Picks: - generally better value prices for the market leaders. Extrabet - The only sportsbook to pay out in full for place ties. Free bets at both.

Transitions championship value betting:

(u = stakes in units(pts)

- 1u E/W Sean O' Hair @ 30/1 (Stanjames)O' Hair is a previous winner here and finished last week with a superb low round. He is my headline value pick this week.

- 1u E/W Padraig Harrington @ 20/1(general)Recently backed Harrington and if the current trend continues of backing both Villegas and Els a week too early, Irishman could be first over the finishline this week! New putter has had a couple of weeks practice in now and Harrington thrives on courses like this

- 0.75u Stewart Cink @ 45/1 (general) Can never really tell what Cink is going to do but 1 thing is for sure is that the price is far too big. Top 6 here in his last start in 2008 and excels on the tougher courses as he showed when he came under the radar to win the Open last year.

- 2.25u Kenny Perry Top 10 finish @ 7.4 (Betfair) As mentioned, Perry is a great par 3 player. He is long and accurate off the tee and his record is pretty solid here, unsurprisingly.

- 2.25u John Senden Top 10 finish @ 7.4 (Betfair) It's pretty simple, he's in good current form, finishing just outside the top 10 last week, he's got GREAT course form, his GIR and other stats measure up for Copperhead, surely he's must for top 10!!

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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