Next stop on the PGA golf tour is the Honda Classic where Robert Allenby leads the betting and rightly so given his record here but anyone who touches him @ 16's in a field of this quality needs their head checking regardless of how he does! The Honda Classic field provides arguably the strongest this year so far on the PGA Tour with some of Europe's finest lining up. Padraig Harraington is on offer at 28/1 on StanJames, almost double Allenby's price and the Dubliner will be my headline golf value pick for this year's Honda Classic betting.

Harraington is a previous winner of this tournament, albeit on a different course and it takes him a while to get into gear but he's had enough practise now. Another that stands out is Ernie Els who has recaptured some form of old and on a course that will separate the cream from the rest, he may be worth backing @ 25/1.

The course itself is a par 70 of medium length(7,158 yards) and ranked 9th/54 in difficulty on the PGA tour last year. Generous enough landing areas but they must be hit as it's hard to access the pin positions if you drive into the penal rough. Par 3 performance is a key stat this week as the intimidating "Bear Trap" lies in wait down the stretch and that brings my attention to first timer, little Timmy Clark..... stay tuned for expert Honda Classic golf value betting picks

Honda Classic Value Picks

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-1pt E/W Padraig Harraington @ 28/1 (Stan James) Previous winner of the Honda on a different course, should be getting on top of his schedule and loves tough courses

-1pt E/W Ernie Els @ 25/1 (general) Again, showing signs of old and look to the best players to be the men left standing come Sunday on this difficult track

-2.75pts Tim clark Top 10 finish @ 4/1 (Betfair Exchange) Par 3 performance stats as well as accuracy catch the eye here. Greens are large so his usual chipping problems may be avoided if he plays his normal game.

-1.75pts Angel Cabrera Top 10 finish @ 7/1 (Betfair Exchange) Again, saves his best performances for the more difficult courses. Cabrera is a big time player and well overpriced for this event.

-1.5pts Jeev Milkha Singh Top 20 finish @ 5/1 (paddypower) Feeling good about life in general, good scrambler and off the back of a decent WGC. Could be a dark horse for this event.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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