GOLF BETTING: ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL PICKS

The last of the Florida swing heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week as some of the world's best golfers once again tee it up. The Bay Hill course has undergone serious changes since last year whe when Tiger Woods claimed comeback victory after hunting down this week's one to watch, Sean O' Hair.

For this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational the stars will be facing a much longer golf course with fairway bunkers having been repositioned to catch them out a lot more. The conditions have been made faster and firmer to make shots around the green the real key this week so look to the top players to be the ones dominating the Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard come Sunday.

The course itself will play almost 7,400 yards long to a par 72 which obviously gives a big advantage to the long hitters and as Palmer(course redesigner) likes to do, urging use of the driver, he's kept the fairways relatively generous. Bay Hill ranked 4/54 in difficulty on tour last year but there's 1 man who stands out here in recent years besides Woods in terms of over powering the golf course and that's Sean o' Hair....

Arnold Palmer Invitational Value Betting Golf Picks:

IMPORTANT: Recommended sportsbooks for golf betting with Nic's Picks: Ladbrokes.com - generally better value prices for the market leaders. Extrabet - The only sportsbook to pay out in full for place ties. Free bets at both. For trading: Betfair exchange.

- 1pt E/W Sean O' Hair @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes) O' Hair has a top 15 and 2 top 5's in last 3 starts here and was runaway leader at halfway point last year, only to fall to the pressure of Woods in his rear-view mirror to finish second. Shabby performance last week but I wouldn't look too much into that.

- 1pt E/W Ernie Els @ 20/1 (general) Els is said to be working extremely hard on his game at the moment as he gears up for this year's first major at Augusta. He has a decent record at the Arnold Palmer Invitational(Previous winner) and his play around the greens makes him a good golf betting pick this week. Continued his form in the Tavisock cup earlier this week.

- 1pt E/W Steve Stricker @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) It's simple really, he's the best all round player in the game (as the stats back up) at the moment and on a course that played so difficult last year, you've got to make him favourite over Mickelson for this year's Arnold Palmer Invitational

Sleeper picks (place betting):

- 2pts Carl Pettersson Top 10 finish @ 9/1 (Betfair exchange) Massive price on a really promising player who had an awful season last year. Watching him closely last week though and he seems back on song. Putter was working really well and the generous fairways should help. Good record here at Bay Hill.

- 2pts Rickie Fowler Top 10 finish@ 5/1 (Extrabet) Rookie is proving himself to be a force this year on the PGA tour and tough courses (surprisingly to me) don't scare him. I'm fast changing my mind about him and wouldn't be surprised to see him contend this week. Featured fairy strongly last week and kept coming back after upsets, a sign of a great player.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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