Football Betting: Premier League Value Bets Mar 20-21

All 4 of the big English Premier League teams progressed into the last 8 of their respective European football competitions and Fulham also joined the reds in the last 8 of the Europa league but the focus now turns straight away back to domestic football and Premier league betting takes centre stage once more. A MASSIVE clash coming up on Sunday at Old Trafford where Liverpool travel to Manchester UTD looking to follow up from last year's big win there and an on fire Torres might be worth looking at in the anytime goal scorer markets.

Fulham follow up from their huge win against Juventus by facing another Italian type team with the Mancini lead Man City providing the opposition. Craig Bellamy is the man I have my eye on there. It's Blackburn vs chelsea at Ewood and a London derby of Arsenal vs Westham at the Emirates. A win for Wenger's men and they surely must be taken as serious Premier league title contenders. Elsewhere, a Jermaine Defoe less Spurs and a resurgent Aston Villa, the other champions league contenders for next year will take on Stoke and Wolves respectively...... stay tuned for expert premier league value betting tips

Free English Premier League Football Value Betting tips:

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(u= units(pts) scale 1-5, % = win expection of value bets)

-3.5u Everton vs Bolton over 2.5 goals @ 17/20 (Betfair) Both teams will be out to attack. Coyle doesn't like his teams to just sit back and Everton are looking very potent in attack at the moment. Saha may return - 70%

-2u Craig Bellamy anytime goal scorer scorer vs Fulham @ 12/5 (bet365) Bellamy's pace in behind will be a serious threat, especially on shorter pitches as he showed at Stamford Bridge when he hit a brace - 50%, 1pt Bellamy brace@ 16/1 (Paddypower)

-3.25u Sunderland vs Birmingham - Sunderland corner handicap -1 @ 1/1 (bet365) Bruce has been playing with all three of Jones, Bent and Campbell recently and that pace will get them in behind Birmingham often - 70%

-3.5u Stoke win vs spurs (+0.25 Asian handicap) @ 11/10 (Ladbrokes) No Defoe for Spurs. Stoke very difficult to beat at home and quite fancy them to turn an understrenght Spurs over or at least grab a point

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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