Europa / Champions League Value Bets Mar 16-18

Free Champions League / Europa League Football Value Betting tips:

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(u= units(pts) scale 1-5, % = win expection of value bets)

Champions League Betting
- 4u Sevilla vs CSKA over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Betfair) Fabiano likely to start and Renato back in the midfield alongside Zokora. CSKA need to attack. Should be an open game. Watch out for Necid - 70-75%

- 3.5u Chelsea vs Inter Milan corners over 10.5 @ 6/5 (Bwin) great value price on what should be an onslaught at high tempo by the home side. Price and line totally wrong -70%

Europa League Soccer Picks

- 3u Liverpool vs Lille Torres/Liverpool score/win double @ 7/5(Bluesquare) Torres back on form with a brace against Pompey. Expect more of the same against an out of their depth Lille side - 65%, 1u Torres brace vs Lille @ 5/1 (William Hill)

- 2.75u Werder Bremen win vs Valencia @ 6/5 (Betfair) Home side overpriced against an out of form of late Valencia who have injury problems in attack and defense - 60%

- 1.75u Claudio Pizarro anytime scorer vs Valencia @ 2/1 (coral) As mentioned, Valencia suffering with defensive problems and Pizarro will get chances - 50-55%, 0.75u Pizarro brace @ 9/1 (bluesquare)

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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