Europa / Champions League Value Bets Mar 16-18

Free Champions League / Europa League Football Value Betting tips:

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(u= units(pts) scale 1-5, % = win expection of value bets)

Champions League Betting
- 4u Sevilla vs CSKA over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 (Betfair) Fabiano likely to start and Renato back in the midfield alongside Zokora. CSKA need to attack. Should be an open game. Watch out for Necid - 70-75%

- 3.5u Chelsea vs Inter Milan corners over 10.5 @ 6/5 (Bwin) great value price on what should be an onslaught at high tempo by the home side. Price and line totally wrong -70%

Europa League Soccer Picks

- 3u Liverpool vs Lille Torres/Liverpool score/win double @ 7/5(Bluesquare) Torres back on form with a brace against Pompey. Expect more of the same against an out of their depth Lille side - 65%, 1u Torres brace vs Lille @ 5/1 (William Hill)

- 2.75u Werder Bremen win vs Valencia @ 6/5 (Betfair) Home side overpriced against an out of form of late Valencia who have injury problems in attack and defense - 60%

- 1.75u Claudio Pizarro anytime scorer vs Valencia @ 2/1 (coral) As mentioned, Valencia suffering with defensive problems and Pizarro will get chances - 50-55%, 0.75u Pizarro brace @ 9/1 (bluesquare)

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


    6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.