Champions/Europa League Value Bets March 9-11

Big week ahead in the Champions League and Europa league betting this football midweek as the competitions draw nearer the latter stages. First up on Tuesday and Wednesday night is the Champions League action where Manchester UTD take on Milan after quite a lucky first leg win IMO and doubts over Wayne Rooney's fitness make that an intriguing affair. Madrid and Arsenal both look to over turn first leg disadvantages against Lyon and Porto respectively and both away sides will come to defend all hands to the pump.

The Europa league last 16 gets underway on Thursday night and a few mouth watering fixtures in prospect as well as a few nice looking value betting opportunities. 2 games that look like they may have goals on the cards are Valencia at home to free scoring Bremen and a back on form Wolfsburg take on Kazan over in Russia. Liverpool have a difficult fixture away to Lille and the home side could be decent value bets to pick up at least a point.... stay tuned for expert Champions league/ Europa league value betting picks....





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Midweek Football Value Bets:

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(figures = stakes in units / % = win expectation of value bets)

- 3.5 Arsenal win vs Porto @ 1.7(Betfair Exchange ) No Fabregas but Arshavin and co should have enough to beat this Porto outfit - 70%

- 1.5 score/win double - Piquionne/ Portsmouth vs Birmingham @ 5/1(Betfred) Only a few days since the same fixture where Piquionne bagged a brace in a 2-0 win. Very good value on more of the same - 30%

- 3.5 Real Madrid corner handicap (-3) vs Lyon @ 1/1 (Stanjames) Lyon coming to defend, expect Madrid to have all the posession as they did against Sevilla and create plenty of action in the box - 70%

- 3.25 Man UTD vs Milan over 2.5 goals @ 19/20 (Betfair Exchange ) Rooney has resumed training and is likely to play. Milan know they need at least 2 goals and can do nothing but come out and attack -70%

3.25 Valencia vs Bremen over 2.5 goals @ 11/13 (Betfair Exchange ) Both teams score goals for fun and don't expect Bremen to be overly defensive when they visit the Mestalla 70%

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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