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WGC Accenture Matchplay Picks | Mayakoba Golf Picks

Headline Pick Strick The first big matchplay event of the year takes place this week as the pros head to the WGC Accenture World Matchplay where the bookmakers don't see much difference between the top 4 seeds but IMO, there's 1 of those 4 that stands out from the pack and that's Steve Stricker, especially when you look at his potential path to the semi-final. Stricker took a break last week after yet another victory on the PGA golf tour and he will be my no. 1 golf betting pick this week to take down the WGC Accenture World Matchplay. Defending champ Ogilvy has other things on his mind at the moment, Rory McIlroy will undoubtedly be 1 to watch but as we know, predicting the winner of this is even tougher than the normal golf betting. As usual though, it's all about the value and there are what look like some great value betting opportunites in the individual brackets betting. Stick around for picks.

Elsewhere, the PGA Tour is still in full flow and a lot of the players will make their way to Mexico this week as they tee it up at the Mayakoba classic at Riviera Maya-Cancun where a back to form David Duval is gunning for a comeback victory. Accuracy from the tee and high GIR% will be the premium at the Mayakoba classic and the standout golf pick as far as those stats go so far this year will be one Heath slocum who showed us in the playoffs last year that he has what it takes to win in far better fields than this 1....... stay tuned for WGC Accenture Matchplay picks / Mayakoba classic golf picks

Accenture Matchplay Picks:

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-1.5pts win Steve Stricker @ 16/1 ( Exchanges) Stricker is like a man reborn since late last year. His all round game is 1 of the best out there and it will take a very good performance by someone to stop him this week if he continues playing as he has been.

-1.5pts win Rory McIlroy win @ 17/1 ( Exchanges) Matchplay should suit the dynamic Rory McIlroy. He will always know what's needed to be done and that will help him. Good performance here last year and draw doesn't look too difficult on paper.

-1.5pts Win Paul Casey @ 25/1 ( Exchanges) Just getting back to form now after long time out with injury. Loves matchplay and loves this course. Again, draw looks kind.

Got some fancies of you own? Why not share them in our golf forum. Stay up to date with the latest golf news here.

Brackets Betting

-0.75pts E/W Henrik Stenson to win Gary Player Bracket@ 10/1 (sporting bet 1/2 odds, places 1-2)(VOID - Late withdrawal)
-0.75pts E/W Nick watney to win Gary Player Bracket @ 16/1 (Stanjames 1/3 odds, places 1-2)

-0.75pts E/W Tim Clark to win Hogan Bracket @ 12/1(sportingbet, 1/2 odds places 1-2)

-0.5pts E/W Adam Scott to win Bobby Jones Bracket @ 22/1 (sportingbet, 1/2 odds, places 1-2)

-0.5pts E/W Francesco Molinari to win Sam Snead bracket @ 28/1 (sportingbet, 1/2 odds, places 1-2)

All the above are the type of players who can thrive in matchplay situations and look good value to put a run together in what is the supposed "Lottery" of the WGC Matchplay


Mayakoba Classic Value Picks:

-1pt E/W Heath Slocum @ 22/1 (paddypower) Tied 3rd here last year, in decent form at the moment and has the game that suits this tight track down to the ground. Knows how to win when he gets in position.

-1pt E/W Boo Weekley @ 33/1 (general) Again, Boo is a great ball striker and has a high ball flight to be able to access the pins on the small, well guarded greens at Riviera Maya-Cancun. Has course form with a 6th place finish.

-1pt E/W David Duval @ 35/1 (general) Duval admitted after last weeks performance that his game is getting back to where it used to be when he was no less than no. 1 in the world. If he strikes the ball as he did on Pebble Beach, he could be the man to beat here.

-2.75pts Matt Every Top 10 finish @ 8.4 ( Exchanges) This week's big sleeper has a fantastic GIR% and has played some top golf the last couple of weeks. Has form in Mexico having done well on the second tour in this country last year.

-1.25pts Joe Durant Top 10 finish @ 9.4 ( Exchanges) Has a top 30 and top 15 here last 2 years respectively. His accurate game is what catches my eye and lets hope he can go 1 better and push himself into the top 10 this week.


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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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