PREMIER LEAGUE VALUE BETTING FEB 9-10

Full round of Barclay's English Premier League soccer fixtures this midweek with some massive clashes coming up. It's Arsenal vs Liverpool at the Emirates and Villa vs Man UTD at Villa Park where UTD look good value @ evens to take the 3 points. Can Villa stop an on fire Wayne Rooney? Their Manchester rivals take on Bolton in what looks an easy home win and table topping Chelsea have a tough match away to a much improved Everton who @ 9/2 could be a good value bet on the handicap.

English Premier League Value Betting Soccer Picks:


-3pts Man City win (-1) vs Bolton @ 13/10 (Bet365) City will be all guns blazing to get the loss against Hull out of their system. Good value betting price.

-3.5pts Man city corner handicap (-3) vs Bolton @ 5/6(skybet) An injury for Bellamy means a likely front 3 for City of Petrov, Tevez and Adebayor. With Bolton sitting back and Petrov firing in the crosses and Tevez firing in the shots, that handicap should be quite easily cancelled out.

-3.75pts Man UTD win vs Villa @ 1/1 (general) Villa boring the life out of the English Premier League at the moment and have failed to score in a lot of their recent games. Evens is a very appealing price for the on fire UTD and Rooney to continue their form.

-3.25pts Wolves vs Spurs over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 ( Exchanges ) Defoe on fire, Doyle in form and Spurs likely to be without Ledley King.

Copa Del Rey semi final Value Betting pick

-2pts Racing Santander win Half/Fulltime vs Atletico @ 3/1(general) Atletico will go to play through the motions after a big first leg win. Racing have nothing to lose and will fly out of the traps all guns blazing. Their manager still hasn't given up hope of progressing. Decent value bet.

To make the most out of tips on Nic's Picks, it's strongly recommended you set yourself up with an exchange account to get the best value prices. Sign up now and receive a £25 Free Bet

Keep up to date with real time live scoring for all soccer fixtures with our Live Scoring feature. Maybe you have some fancies of you own? Why not share them in our new Forum or use the chat box on the Live scoring page.


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5 comments:

  1. Hey Nic
    How do you come to the conclusion about what to stake, how for instance did you decide one game was 3.25 units and one 3.75?
    As someone who bets flat 1 unit plays how could I emcompass that to bet your picks?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi mate,

    Basically it's all to do with the value I see in the price and the chance it has of coming in. IE: how overpriced the odds are to my estimation of the true probability.

    I then use a staking system modified on a formula in what's known as the 1/2 Kelly system (do a google on that). I use a modified version of that as that system alone is far too risky and will bust your bankroll.

    With regards to my picks, if you only stick to level stakes, I'd advise you to only bet on soccer picks with a confidence level of 70% +.

    With regards to golf, the stakes don't vary too much so maybe split your unit stake in half and follow my guidelines.

    Nic

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks mate
    Regarding your golf picks, do you always bet to trade out or if you bet a player at short odds (say 16-1) would you like it ride out?

    Cheers

    ReplyDelete
  4. One last question
    Do you have a maximum unit play?

    ReplyDelete
  5. The golf picks I put up as E/W on site are the 1's I'll be backing myself outright to trade.

    I prefer to bet top 20 or top 10 on the higher odds picks as I see it as more profitable in the long run. It gives them a chance to get in the back door. IE: Fire a great last round or something, whereas if you've backed them to trade, there would have been little or no activity for them on the exchanges.

    In short, I'll only bet to trade with people I'm very confident wil hit the front or very near the front before 60 or so holes.

    My staking system is 0.5 - 5 units

    Nic

    ReplyDelete

Any thoughts or fancies to share, then feel free... all feedback welcome