NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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Golf Betting: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Poults At The Double? Ian Poulter has a firm goal in his mind and that is to hit the no. 2 spot in the world golf rankings and after victory no. 1 on American soil last week, this week's Waste Management Phoenix Open is unlikely to be the 'calm after the storm'. No doubt Poulter will be eyeing another victory and if he plays near the level he did on Saturday and Sunday last week when he more than edged out Nic's Picks golf tip Paul Casey in the final, he is going to be there or there abouts again. Bookie favourite Mickelson is another who should feature strongly on this course. It's a course that sets up for 'Lefty' with length off the tee a distinct advantage here as well as the ability to read greens. Last year the greens at the Waste Management Phoenix Open (Formerly known as the FBR Open) were some of the trickiest on tour to read. If the rough is as it was last year, accuracy will also be important making the total driving stat key this week. Moore, Allenby, Glover and Rollins would be names that stick out after the last statement but I won't be picking any of them in this week's golf value betting for various reasons. Camillo Villegas is most definitely on the radar after looking in top shape last week at the Accenture......... stay tuned for expert Waste Management Phoenix Open picks....


Waste Management Phoenix Open Value Picks

I'd recommend a Ladbrokes account for anyone into outright - E/W Golf Betting. Bigger prices and better value at Ladbrokes.com.



-1pt E/W Camillo Villegas @ 33/1 (Boylesports, Ladbrokes) Villegas looked on top of his game last week and has some course form here. A possible big season ahead of the Colombian.

-1pt E/W Ian Poulter @ 28/1 (price drifting - Boylesports) Unlikely to revel in his success too long and should be fully focused to mount another challenge this week

-0.75pts Sean O Hair E/W @ 40/1 (general) He has had a few decent performances here before but not really challenged in the past few years. This has probably been down to his putting(which is a big factor here) but he's been doing work on that and I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge

-1.75pts Charley Hoffmann Top 10 finish @ 8/1 ( Exchanges ) Knows the course well. Lost here last year in a playoff. Good putter and big hitter. If he can be relatively accurate this week, he could have a good one.

-1.75pts Bubba Watson Top 10 finish @ 17/2(Paddypower) I'm not usually 1 to give much credence to the thought that friends or fellow countrymen of the previous week's winner can draw magical inspiration from their mate but I'll put it to the test this week with the online gaming buddy of Ian Poulter. His power is a big plus on this course, just ask J.B Holmes!

-1pt Greg Owen top 20 finish @ 11/1 (skybet) Good performance last time out and the English man usually sneaks along unnoticed. His total driving stats catch the eye for this course.

Benefit from these tips? Why not buy me a beer! :)


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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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