Up For Grabs A weak field lines up for the Avantha Masters golf this week in a golf tournament that's expected to put India on the map. The field is largely made up of home players and those from the Asian Tour but a fair amount of the 'lesser' golfers from the European Tour are sticking around to see if they can capture Avantha Masters glory. Jeev Milkha Singh leads the home challenge and after recently admitting his best form is coming back after an injury hit 2009, and proving that last week in Abu Dhabi, he is a must golf pick for me this week even though his short odds don't represent a big value bet. Other home players to note are Shiv Kapur who's been in good form this year, Bhullar who won the Asian Tour first event last week with a course record -8, and of course Jyoti Randhawa. I could tell you to watch out for the Kumars but with about 10 of them in the field, that wouldn't mean much! The biggest name in the field is Irishman Darren clarke but with his putting problems, I can't be having him at those betting odds ..... stay tuned for expert Avantha Masters value betting golf picks....

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-1pt E/W Jeev Milkha Singh @ 11/1 (general) Home favourite hitting form and should be the man to beat in this average field

-1pt E/W Gareth Maybin @ 33/1 (general) Definitely the best bet in terms of value this week. Approx 40th and 20th last 2 times out on courses that didn't really suit and if he carries that form with him to a shorter course that's much more up his street, it could be victory no. 1 for a man on my one-to-watch 2010 list.

-1pt E/W Shiv Kapur @ 28/1 (bet365) Another home man and was playing arguably the best golf of his life a few weeks back. Narrowly missed out on victory in Africa, losing in a playoff.

-2pts Jyoti Randawha Top 10 finish @ 14/5 (stanjames) Knows the course well and although not in great form, could be driven by the home support.

-2pts Marcus Fraser Top 10 finish @ 9/2 (stanjames) Played well on this course at the Johnnie walker 2008 with a top 15 finish in a much stronger field and was back to form last week in Abu Dhabi.

-1pt S.S.P Chowrasia Top 10 finish @ 14/1 (skybet) Former winner on tour and again, could be buoyed by home crowd

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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