Scroll for course fit and progressive form models & info

FREE SOCCER PICKS FEB 6-7

Plenty of good fixtures around this weekend for value betting purposes and certainly a few standout fixtures for other purposes. In the English Premier League, it's derby weekend and top of the billing is Chelsea at home to London rivals Arsenal where the value looks to be on a score/win double, with a back and scoring Didier Drogba the man in question. Liverpool take on Everton in the Merseyside derby but there's no value betting soccer picks for me in that 1. Wolves and Birmingham meet in the 3rd Premier league derby of the weekend.

In la liga there's never much value these days in betting on the big 2 as the prices are so short that they'll tear a hole in your pockets. The standout fixtures are the Sunday night La Liga soccer fixtures, notably Sevilla making the trip to an improving Zaragoza who signed Edmilson and Suazo in the transfer window. Goal line value betting will be on the cards in that game. 1 standout fixture in German soccer as well as again the prediction is goals as Bayern travel to Wolfsburg. The man under the radar in that 1 is new superstar Thomas Muller who's recently committed to Bayern and with his finishing ability against the Wolfsburg defense, I'll be backing him for anytime goalscorer ...... stay tuned for expert value betting free soccer picks/ predictions

FREE expert value soccer picks

Keep up to date with real time live scoring for all soccer fixtures with our Live Scoring feature. Maybe you have some fancies of you own? Why not share them in our new Forum or use the chat box on the Live scoring page.

Selection: Spurs vs Villa

Bet: Corners over 10.5

Info: Spurs have been clocking up the corners of late with the likes of Bentley and Bale back in the side. Villa play with a lot of pacey players in attack and the game is set up for corners. Last year, this fixture was a corner fest and most bookmakers have the line way higher than Bwin(4/5) with Stan James going a whopping 13.5 @ only 5/4 on the overs!

Confidence: 80% Stake: 5pts Odds: 4/5 Book: Bwin


Selection: chelsea vs Arsenal

Bet: Score/Win double - Drogba/Chelsea

Info: 9/4 looks good value on the big man firing Chelsea to victory against an understrength Gunners side

Confidence: 50% Stake: 2pts Odds: 9/4 Book: Paddypower


Selection: Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich

Bet: Corners over 11 (line change)

Info: Both teams usually notch up high totals on the corner count and this one should have a lot of action in both final thirds

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 6/5 Book: Bet365 (book and price change)


Selection: Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich

Bet: goal line over 2.75

Info: Likely open end to end game with both teams at full strength. Serious firepower on show.

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 1.66 Book: Betdaq

Selection: Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich

Bet: Thomas Muller anytime scorer

Info: As mentioned, likely to be chances at both ends and this kid has a great finishing ability

Confidence: 45% Stake: 1.75pts Odds: 13-5 Book: sporting bet

-0.75pts Thomas Muller brace @ 20/1 (bluesquare)


Selection: Hull vs Man City

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: Hull came out and attacked Chelsea in midweek, expect goals if they do the same against City. City pace on the counter will expose their defense. Hull with a threat of their own.

Confidence: 70% Stake: 4pts Odds: 19/20 Book: Exchanges

Selection: Hull vs City

Bet: Over 11 corners

Info: City on the road this year have a massive corner count. Hull with the likes of Hunt who statistically is right up there with the amount of crosses he makes also get their fair share at home.

Confidence: 70% Stake: 3.5pts Odds: 10/11 Book: Bet365

Selection: Hull vs Man city

Bet: Craig Bellamy anytime scorer

Info: His pace will cause serious problems to the Hull defense. Boylesports have made an error with this price. Great value

Confidence: 55-60% Stake: 2pts Odds: 11/5 Book: Boylesports

-1pt Bellamy brace @ 12/1 (skybet)


Selection: Athletic Bilbao vs Xerez

Bet: Score/win double

Info: Bilbao with good home record and Llorente usually gets on the sheet when they win.

Confidence: 55-60% Stake:2.25pts Odds: 9-5 Book: Paddypower (odds and book change)


Selection: Mallorca vs Villarreal

Bet: Score/Win double - Aduriz/Mallorca

Info: Won every home game this season and Aduriz is near the top of the Pichici. Villarreal undergoing managerial changes

Confidence: 40% Stake: 2ps Odds: 11/4 Book: bluesquare


Selection: Bolton vs Fulham

Bet: Bolton win

Info: Fulham still looking poor despite their undeserved win midweek and Bolton looking good under their new manager with Davies and Klasnic a real threat. Good value bet.

Confidence: 55-60%% Stake: 2.5ps Odds: 13/10 Book: general

Selection: Bolton vs Fulham

Bet: Bolton corner handicap (-1)

Info: Expect Bolton to pepper the crosses in to the 2 big men. Fulham will play on the counter.

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 3pts Odds: 6/5 Book: bet365

Selection: Zaragoza vs Sevilla

Bet: Fabiano anytime scorer VOID (Injured)

Info: If he starts after a slight soulder injury, he will get chances and likely to take 1.

Confidence: 60-65% Stake: 2.5pts Odds: 13/10 Book: Bwin

-1pt Fabiano brace @ 7/1 (general) VOID (Injured)

Selection: Zaragoza vs Sevilla

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: Reverse fixture this season produced goals and shouls be more of the same with both teams attacking style and the firepower on show

Confidence: 75% Stake: 4.25pts Odds: 19/20 Book: Exchanges



To make the most out of tips on Nic's Picks, it's strongly recommended you set yourself up with an exchange account to get the best value prices.


Bookmark and Share

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?


  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.