NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

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SBS Championships / Africa Golf Open Tips

Glee For Lee? The 2010 golf kicks off this week in the form of the Africa Open golf(Euro tour) and the SBS Championships (PGA). Little or no competitive form to go on but a man talking up his chances is youngster Danny Lee. He says he's excited about his prospects in the 2010 golf calender and he will be the main golf betting value pick in the Africa Open. In the SBS championships, 1 man who does have form/confidence is bookie's rank outsider Jerry Kelly (50) and looking at the rest of the list there isn't much value anywhere. Outside the favourites (Ogilvy, O' Hair and Stricker), Kenny Perry may be the 1 to watch but I see much more value in the "To shoot lowest round" market as usual in a golfing even with a small field ...... stay tuned for SBS championships / Africa Open golf expert value tips /picks


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SBC Championships
The PGA season opener will be played at Kapalua resort which is a course set up for birdies although playing at over 7,400 yards long. Players will have to contend with strong winds but most of them will be helping so the shorter hitters are not necessarily at a disadvantage. Historically though, it's the "bombers" that thrive.

-0.5pts E/W Jerry Kelly @50/1 (Ladbrokes) Kelly is in high spirits after his win in the shark Shootout and could be a factor here and at those odds is definitely an E/W value bet

"To shoot lowest round"

-1pt E/W Nick Watney @ 16/1(Sky Bet)
-1pt E/W Dustin Johnson @ 18/1 (Sky Bet )

Both are bombers who make strings of birdies. Both capable of going extremely low on a course like this on any given day. If I'm not mistaken , I recall Nick Watney being -8 for 9 holes in a recent event.



Africa Golf Open
This event will be played at East London golf course which is one of the shortest on tour playing under 7,000 yards. Set up beside the sea, it has a links feel to it and good wind players could thrive.

-0.75pts Danny Lee E/W @ 40/1 (general) As mentioned, he's been talking up his own chances so obviously feels good about his game. Has won before in quality field so will have the head to stay if he gets up there.

-0.75pts E/W M. Hoey @ 66/1 (Ladbrokes) Great links player and shown good form in december

-1.5pts James Kamte top 20 finish @ 3/1 (Sky Bet) Local favourite had a good december and a recent top 20 in S.A

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
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  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.