SBS Championships / Africa Golf Open Tips

Glee For Lee? The 2010 golf kicks off this week in the form of the Africa Open golf(Euro tour) and the SBS Championships (PGA). Little or no competitive form to go on but a man talking up his chances is youngster Danny Lee. He says he's excited about his prospects in the 2010 golf calender and he will be the main golf betting value pick in the Africa Open. In the SBS championships, 1 man who does have form/confidence is bookie's rank outsider Jerry Kelly (50) and looking at the rest of the list there isn't much value anywhere. Outside the favourites (Ogilvy, O' Hair and Stricker), Kenny Perry may be the 1 to watch but I see much more value in the "To shoot lowest round" market as usual in a golfing even with a small field ...... stay tuned for SBS championships / Africa Open golf expert value tips /picks

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SBC Championships
The PGA season opener will be played at Kapalua resort which is a course set up for birdies although playing at over 7,400 yards long. Players will have to contend with strong winds but most of them will be helping so the shorter hitters are not necessarily at a disadvantage. Historically though, it's the "bombers" that thrive.

-0.5pts E/W Jerry Kelly @50/1 (Ladbrokes) Kelly is in high spirits after his win in the shark Shootout and could be a factor here and at those odds is definitely an E/W value bet

"To shoot lowest round"

-1pt E/W Nick Watney @ 16/1(Sky Bet)
-1pt E/W Dustin Johnson @ 18/1 (Sky Bet )

Both are bombers who make strings of birdies. Both capable of going extremely low on a course like this on any given day. If I'm not mistaken , I recall Nick Watney being -8 for 9 holes in a recent event.

Africa Golf Open
This event will be played at East London golf course which is one of the shortest on tour playing under 7,000 yards. Set up beside the sea, it has a links feel to it and good wind players could thrive.

-0.75pts Danny Lee E/W @ 40/1 (general) As mentioned, he's been talking up his own chances so obviously feels good about his game. Has won before in quality field so will have the head to stay if he gets up there.

-0.75pts E/W M. Hoey @ 66/1 (Ladbrokes) Great links player and shown good form in december

-1.5pts James Kamte top 20 finish @ 3/1 (Sky Bet) Local favourite had a good december and a recent top 20 in S.A

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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