PGA Tour Golf Betting - Sony Open Picks / Tips

Zack Attack The Sony Open in Hawaii is the week 2 event on the PGA tour golf season 2010, where Zach Johnson goes to defend on a course that just couldn't be more suited to him. He is currently best priced 20/1 and usually, that's too low for a value pick for me but I've got to take it on Zach as I'm expecting a strong defense, especially with the new grooves in play and this course usually has deep and penal rough. Maybe he can continue the theme of back to back event winners after Ogilvy successfully defended at Kapalua last week.

Rory Sabbitini was on the radar as a good Sony Open golf betting tip this week but @ 28/1 and the aforementioned rough and new grooves, I'll have to pass at those betting odds as he isn't the straightest hitter. Instead we will look further down the list(as usual) for the bigger golf value betting opportunities, avoiding the likes of Stricker and O' Hair who should feature but are too short a price. Focus will be on accuracy this week at the Sony Open, completely the opposite to last week ...... stay tuned for Sony Open Expert Picks / betting tips .......

The Waialae Country club plays at just over 7,000 yards (par 70) and as mentioned, the premium this week will be on accuracy and ball shaping. The fairways are tight and with many doglegs, meaning players that can work the ball both ways tend to thrive. The bermuda rough is usually deep and penal and will be more so this year with the new groove regulations. Greens are small, fast and grainy.

Nic's Picks man to beat - Zach Johnson

Sony Open Value Picks

-1pt E/W Zach Johnson @ 20/1 (Boylesports) Defending champ loves the course and it sets up beautifully for him. Johnson will feel no extra pressure being the holder.

-1pt E/W Brian Gay E/W @ 40/1 (Betfred ) If it's straight hitting you're after, then Gay is your man. Tied 5th here last year.

-1pt E/W Pat Perez @ 50/1 (Betfred ) Perez finished last week really strongly and features regularly on the leaderboard down the years at the Sony open

Sleeper Watch
-1.25pts Parker Mclachin Top 20 @ 12/1 (Extrabet) This is McLachlin's home course and no doubt he's been practising hard here in the close season.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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