GOLF BETTING: Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Stephen Ames For The Win 4th stop on the PGA tour 2010 this week in the form of the Farmers Insurance Open (previously called the Buick Invitational) at Torrey Pines. Golf betting tips so far this year have turned out to be useless but only a couple of weeks in and with little competitive form, that's not exactly a major shock. The golf betting season starts here and there are plenty of value bets on offer looking down the Farmers Insurance Open price list. Home boy Phil Mickelson is obviously installed as favourite and Allenby second in behind him and it's a course right up Allenby's street. I won't be touching either of those 2 though at the short betting prices. The golf tournament will be played over the 2 courses at Torrey pines, with 3 rounds being played on the monster that is the south course. It's over 7,600 yards long with pretty tight fairways and deep rough so the first focus of Farmers Insurance golf picks will be keeping the ball in play off the tee whilst getting it out there at the same time. Total driving is the premium here......... stay tuned for expert Farmers Insurance Open Value golf picks/Tips


Farmers Insurance Open Value Picks:

-1pt E/W Stephen Ames @ 60/1 (sporting bet) Ames regained some form towards the back end of last season and continued on where he left off 2 weeks ago in Hawaii. He regularly features on the leaderboards in majors therefore he enjoys tough challenges like this 1. Way overpriced at 60/1.

-1pts E/W Charles Howell @ 33/1 (general) Great record here on a course he knows very well. In good form this early season.

-2pts John Senden top 10 finish @ 6/1 (Stan James) Played well last week at the Bob Hope and his ability with the driver and his GIR% are what catches the eye as those are key stats around this track (VOID - Late withdrawal)

-1.25pts Matt Jones top 20 finish @ 3/1(paddypower) 5th and another top 20 in his last 2 starts here and off the back of another top 20 last week at the Bob Hope

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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