Euro Tour Golf Betting: Abu Dhabi championships Picks

No Laughing Matter
If you're wondering who that is in the picture on the left, it's Henrik Stenson, who quite obviously will go to great lengths to get his score on the board and this week's European Tour Golf Event, the Abu Dhabi championships is a place where more of the same is on Stenson's agenda. The Abu dhabi championship is a golf tournament Stenson wants the most as he lives right beside the course and sees it as his home golf event. His record here is fantastic but as of yet, no title to show and he will be looking to change that this week and will be my no. 1 golf betting pick. I was going to give the Abu dhabi championships betting a miss altogether as there doesn't seem to be much value betting opportunity and as mentioned last week, this year I'll be focusing mainly on the PGA golf tour in terms of golf picks, but hearing the news that the greens are set to run much faster this year(12 on stimp), I've got to go with my 2 favourites even though they are pretty short priced betting tips..... Stay tuned for Expert value betting Adu Dhabi Championship picks......

The Abu Dhabi golf club course is predominantly a bomber's course, playing at approximately 7,500 yards long and is quite exposed to the elements with sand traps being the main hazards. The rough in cut pretty short this year and the fairways are a pretty decent width. Wind is usually a factor and as mentioned, greens will be running much quicker this year and taking all those factors into account, here are the men to watch:

Nic's Pick's man to beat - Henrik Stenson

Abu Dhabi golf championships value betting picks

-1pt E/W Henrik Stenson @ 16/1(Paddypower) Swede has now set up home in this part of the world and lives nearby the course. He is desperate for a win here and conditions play into his hands this week.

-1pt E/W Geoff Ogilvy @ 14/1(general) Again, horses for courses and on this type of course, Ogilvy excels as he showed again 2 weeks ago. After his win, he pledged not to make the same mistakes as last year where he sort of fell into the pack a bit. This year he wants to push on and get more wins before he takes a short break in about a month's time for family reasons

-1.5pts Graeme Mc Dowell Top 10 finish @ 9/2 (William Hill) McDowell is often overlooked by the bookmaker's and again, course and conditions should suit.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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