Chevron World Challenge/PGA qualifying School Picks

Along with the Nedbank Challenge, Golf nippon Series JT Cup and the Australian open, there are also 2 biggish events taking place on the US PGA golf tour from the 2nd - 7th of december. These 2 events are of course the PGA qualifying school with players competing for their card for next years main golf tour and the small select field in Tiger wood's Chevron World Series

King's Cup

Chevron World Series Picks
-0.75pts E/W Ian Poulter @ 14/1(PaddyPower) Course is very short with emphasis on accuracy and ball placement - 2 of Poulter's strengths. Poulter is in great form and is the value here at 14's

-0.5pts E/W Graeme McDowell @ 35/1 (PaddyPower) Can't actually believe this price in a 14 man field comprising of a lot of golfers that have been out of competitive action. McDowell is seriously underrated and is a much better bet at a price like that than for example my own favourite Harrington would be @ 7's

PGA Tour Qualifying School
6 rounds will be played over 2 courses at Bear Lakes. Both courses are in excess of 7,400 yards so bearing these facts in mind, we're looking for a consistent golfer with a bit of distance off the tee. Chris riley ticks box 1 but the length of the courses puts me off him and instead I'll go for Joe Ogilvie who stands out from the rest in terms of what I was looking for.

-1pt E/W Joe Ogilvie @ 40/1 (Boylesports) Ogilvie is a solid player who could easily string together 6 good rounds. He averages over 290 yards off the tee and his putting and scrambling stats are right up there.

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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