Australian PGA /Alfred Dunhill championships

Sterne Test In South Africa The new European Golf Tour season kicks off this week at the Alfred Dunhill Championships in south Africa where Ernie Els dominated the betting. But it is another home favourite, Richard Sterne, who also has a standout record in his homeland. Winner last year and in a tournamnet that means so much to him, a price of 33/1 is a fantastic value bet for the alfred Dunhill championship. The Australian Golf tour continues this week with the Australian PGA Championships and the top 5 bookie's favourites look very tough to beat but none have value in them IMO so I'll be looking further down the list as usual.... Stay tuned for Australian / Alfred dunhill championships expert value picks...

As mentioned earlier, in the Australian PGA, the top 5 will be hard to crack. Well, problem solved. Sky Bet are offering a market: "W/O Allenby, Ogilvy and Scott" and what's more, they are only reducing odds by about 25-30%. The Coolum course itself is one that demands accuracy and placement over length off the tee. Conditions are set to firm and fast and draining with the heat.

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Australian PGA Championships Picks(All W/O Allenby, Scott, Ogilvy)
-0.75pts E/W Richard Green @ 20/1 (Sky Bet) Decent performance last week and course could suit

-0.75pts E/W Cameron Percy @ 22/1 (Sky Bet) Again, carrying form from last week and if he gets a sniff he usually sustains a challenge and a place a good posibility

-0.5pts E/W Michael Long @ 66/1 (Sky Bet) Another that played strongly last week

-0.5pts E/W Steve Allan @ 100/1 (Sky Bet) Huge price for a guy with a strong record in his home country and following the theme, a good performance last week


Alfred dunhill Championships Value Picks:

The Alfred dunhill championship to be played at the Leopard's creek golf course is an event that the home nation players tend to do well in. The Kikuya grass around the course is a type of grass it helps to be familiar with. The course winds it way through forest land and there is water trouble everywhere so use the driver erratically at your peril. Accuracy and positioning/plotting will be the focus of the picks.

-0.75pts E/W Richard Sterne @ 33/1(Betfred ) Current holder of this championship and a really strong competitor on home soil. Not a great result last week but played far better than his score would suggest.

-0.75pts E/W Thomas Aiken @ 28/1 ( StanJames) another who flourishes on familiar territory and on my one-to-watch list for 2010. Could start with a bang.

-0.5pts E/W Michael lorenzo Vera @ 100/1 ( StanJames) Hitting some form of late and big price. Has course form at Leopard's Creek too

- 1pt George Coatzee top 20 finish @ 6/1 (Sky Bet) Home native a dark horse this year. Recently had a good 6 round tournament in the European Tour Qualifying and featured in the last 2 tournaments here with decent finishes

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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