Guide To Corner Betting

1 of my more successful markets has been the corner betting market in football, mainly the English Premier league and the Champions league. It's a market that escapes most punters but you could say the same about odds compilers, such is the potential of the possible ROI% and the generous odds/lines often given by the sportsbooks.

Some punters that do dabble in the corner betting markets like to back the unders but it's backing the overs and corners handicaps that I myself specialise in. I find the lines/handicaps are often wrong the prices often generous, more so than in your regular markets.

Variables which influence corner count

Here are some of the factors which are generally overlooked when it comes to corner betting but when taken into account give you a significant edge over the bookmakers/other punters/layers:

Pitch dimension: My studies over the years have shown(which stand to reason) that pitches with the smallest surface area tend to clock up the most corners. Short and wide pitches are the target for high corner counts.

Manager style of play: How do the teams approach the games? Do they play a short passing game or a more direct game involving getting the ball into the box as often as they can? Do they focus attacks down the flanks?

Widemen/attackers/fullbacks: The key to winning corners is getting in behind the defense. Pacey forwards, wingers and attacking overlapping fullbacks are key to doing this. The more they are present in a team, the better.

Game pattern: Is it likely to be a cagey cat and mouse game or a fast end to end game? Generally games between the 'big 4' in England will have a low (under 11) corner count because of the chess like and slow game pattern whereas open end to end games will have a lot of box action and space in behind leading to high corner counts

For each game I take all these factors and more into account in regards to corner betting as well as using recorded corner stats (for, against, total, home and away) for each team and then I create my own line and price. After that, go hunting for something more generous, hence offering me value.

You'd be surprised how often you'll get it right if you take these factors(and more) into account.

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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