Golf Betting Dec 3rd - 6th

This week there are 3 smaller tournaments going on over the golf world worth betting on in terms of value, with the respective fields in terms of depth and quality pretty low compared to the usual standard, with a lot of golfers real seasons being over in their minds and the standout value bet is a resurgent (after injury) Robert Karlsson who can smell victory again at this week's NedBank challenge after 2 runner up finishes in a row. Jeev Milkha Singh will return to defend the final event on the Japanese golf tour where young starlet Ryo Ishikawa will want to end the season with a win at the Golf Nippon Series Jt Cup. Of course neither of my value picks will be those 2 bookie favourites. In Australia, some of the world's finest headline the field and obviously dominate the betting at the Australian Golf Open, to be played at the fabulous NSW golf club which is a links style resort. My man to beat will be a returning to form Adam Scott who likes links golf but as usual my picks will centre around value so I'll be looking further down the list.... stay tuned for this week's golf picks and prices...

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Australian Open picks:

-0.75pts E/W Scott Arnold @ 70/1 (Bet365) Arnold in the final round of the last Australian tour event last week shot a 66 in adverse weather conditions to propel himself to a third place finish. 1 of the world's best as an amateur, shot the course record here at the start of the year. This is a links course and weather(strong winds) will be a factor again this week

-0.75pts E/W Nick o' Hern @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) 1 of the best putters around and found some form towards the back end of the season. Tends to do well at home and one of his strengths is ball control, which he will need in the wind this week

Nedbank Challenge
-1pt E/W Robert Karlsson @ 13/1(Ladbrokes) Course form, current form, hunger, freshness and confidence off the back of 2 runner up finishes makes Karlsson the big value bet this week in a field of only 12 players

-0.5pts E/W Richard Sterne @ 33/1 (Sky Bet) Props up the field in terms of favouritism with the bookies but his home form cannot be underestimated and the putter looked hot last week. Can be absolutely brilliant when he's on and if he gets ahead, he may not look back with home crowd behind

Golf Nippon Series Jt Cup
-0.75pts E/W Brendan Jones @ 20/1 (Sky Bet) Jones had a solid week last week and winner and runner up in this tournament the last 2 years

-0.75pts E/W Hiroyuki Fujita @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) Fujita 1 of Japan's top stars and performed well with Imada last week in the WGC. Could have contended for the win last year here if it wasn't for 1 bad round.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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