Victory cigar? On the straight and narrow The European tour continues this week in tandem with the Asian tour as they hit the UBS Championships at Fanling in Hong Kong, where Miguel Angel Jimenez has a record second to none. He thrives in ths part of the world and already has multiple victories on this course. This week's destination couldn't differ more from the Magnolia on the PGA tour. Fanling is 1 of the shortest courses on tour and the big hitters may as well leave their drivers at home. Golf Picks this week will be centered around the accurate/straight hitters.... click link for UBS Hong Kong Open preview/picks...

The Fanling Course is 1 of the smallest the golfers will see all year round at only 6,700 yards and it's a course that requires you to work and place the ball off the tee. Doglegs are on numerous holes, both left and right and some greens are elevated. It's no surprise when you look at the list of winners that the likes of the experienced campaigners Montgomerie, Olazabal and Jimenez feature strongly. The greens are set to run at 11 on the stimp and are supposedly in great condition.

FREE expert UBS Hong Kong Open VALUE Picks:
-0.75pts E/W Jeev Milkha Singh @ 40/1 (Bluesq)Singh has a very good record in this event and has been showing signs of some top form of late

-0.75pts E/W Soren Kjeldsen @ 28/1 (Bluesq) Straight and precise? Not many more so than Kjeldsen who finished last week with a very strong round. Appetite for another victory is up.

-0.75pts E/W Thomas Levet @ 70/1 (Bet365) Another who finished very strongly last week and an intelligent player who knows how to place the ball. His distance control to elevated greens could come in handy here just like it did when he won big for Nic's Picks earlier in the year in Spain

-0.75pts E/W M.A Jimenez @ 33/1 (Bluesq) As mentioned in the preview, Jimenez thrives in these parts and this course suits him down to the ground. Big price for him in this field if not only for place/trade value

Sleeper watch
-2.5pts Rhys Davies top 20 finish @ 7/2 (PaddyPower)Welshman has been tearing up the second tour this year and will be 1 to watch next year on the main tour

-1.5pts Mark Brown top 20 finish @ 8/1(Sky Bet)Brown tied for 30th last time out and excels in this part of the world. Decent form on the course.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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