Dubai World Championship Betting

Big Season Finale In Dubai The Dubai World Championship, after 51 long golfing weeks is here and Rory Mcilroy (wrongly IMO) dominates the betting. 1 final effort before the stars of world golf get to head home and relax for the christmas and there are 4 of the world's best golfers still in the running for the year long Race To Dubai trophy. Those 4 players are the aforementioned McIlroy, an eager Lee Westwood, Germany's Martin Kaymer and Ross Fisher from England who is the best value pick of the 4 @ 20/1. They will be all having their own personal battle within the Dubai World Championship to claim the European Tour's biggest prize - The Race to Dubai (formerly known as The Order Of Merit... Stay tuned for Dubai World Championships Betting preview/picks


Little is known about the venue for this week's big showdown - The Earth course in Dubai. Martin Kaymer was certainly keen to get an edge over his opponents having been the first player to arrive, late on Sunday. One thing is for certain and that is the fact that the Greg Norman designed track will be a severe test from tee to green with some potentially nail biting risk and reward holes coming down the stretch. At 7695 yards long and with numerous water hazards, the emphasis this week is most definitely on driving, both length and accuracy.

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Expert Value Dubai world Championship picks:
-1pt E/W Ross Fisher @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes) With his driving ability and with eyes on the overall Race To Dubai trophy, Ross could be a serious contender this week. Winner of the match play a few weeks ago and has had a week's rest to get ready for the big showdown

-0.75pts E/W Graeme Mc Dowell @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes) Found some form on the Asian swing and tends to do well on major like courses

-0.75pts E/W Soren Hansen @ 50/1( StanJames) Hasn't won for a while but 1 of Europe's top notch players and with the premium being on driving, at 50/1, I can't leave out Soren Hansen. If he has a good week with the putter, this could be his time.

To shoot lowest Round
-1pt E/W Rory McIlroy @ 16/1 (Sky Bet) As mentioned earlier I don't think McIlroy should be favourite and the reason is that he hasn't been able to put 4 good rounds together this year but he is certainly capable of shooting low numbers as he's proved the last 2 weeks.

-0.5pts E/W Ross McGowan @ 60/1 (Sky Bet) McGowan has shot some very low rounds this year and when he gets going, he doesn't hold back. He went very low in his victory this year on a course not too dissimilar in length to the earth course

-0.5pts E/W Thomas Aiken @ 100/1 (Sky Bet) Enigmatic south African hasn't been in good form of late but at odds like this I can't over look a small value bet on a man capable of shooting any number on any given day
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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