Premiership/Spanish Football Betting Oct 17-18th

Mestalla comes calling for Messi
Cracking game tops the billing this week in the Spanish Primera Division where there is some real value in the goal/goalscorer betting markets as Barcelona and Messi travel to Valencia. Elsewhere in La Liga Madrid have what looks an easy tie on paper at home to Valladolid and Sevilla have a tough game away to Deportivo. Some big games in the English Premiership too with a tough test for Liverpool at Sunderland and same for Chelsea at Villa..... Click link below for Premiership and Spanish Football betting expert value picks

FREE expert VALUE Bundesliga, Spanish and Premiership picks:

Selection: Everton vs Wolves

Bet: Score/win double Everton/Saha

Info: When Everton win, Saha is usually on the sheet and boylesport's price is far too generous to pass up at home to a 'relegation side'

Strength: 5/10 Stake:2pts Odds:11/5 Book: Betfred

Selection: Sunderland vs Liverpool

Bet: Sunderland win (+1) handicap

Info: Liverpool just hit with the news that both Gerrard and Torres are out, making it a seriously tough match to get 3 points from

Strength: 7.25/10 Stake:3.5pts Odds:1/1 Book: Betfred

Selection: Sunderland vs Liverpool

Bet: Andy Reid man of the match

Info: In fine for this season and with the result now likely to favour Sunderland more than Liverpool and Andy Reid the main sunderland creator, 25/1 is massive

Strength: 1.5/10 Stake:1pt Odds:25/1 Book: Coral

Selection: Valencia vs Barcelona

Bet: Goal line over 3.0

Info: A regular feast of goals in this fixture and IF Villa is passed fit, we should have more of the same

Strength: 7/10 Stake:4pts Odds:1.87 Book: Betdaq

Selection: Bilbao vs Gijon

Bet: Over 2.5 goals

Info: Usually goals at the Sam Mames, especially when expansive teams like Gijon come to town

Strength: 7.25/10 Stake:3.75pts Odds:5/6 Book: Betdaq

Selection: Wolfsburg vs monchengladbach

Bet: Wolfsburg win (-1) handicap

Info: Monchengladbach have performed poorly on the road of late and sitting back against Wolfsburg will result in being punished more often than not

Strength: 7/10 Stake:3.75pts Odds:19/20 Book: Hills

Selection: Valencia vs Barca

Bet: David Villa anytime scorer(injury doubt) VOID NON RUNNER

Info: Barca always offer up clear cutchances and Villa doesn't often pass them up

Strength: 6/10 Stake:2pts Odds:9-4 Book: Coral

Selection: Wolfsburg vs monchengladbach

Bet: Edin Dzeko anytime scorer

Info: Scoring goals all over the place at the minute, in the bundesliga, the champions league and scored 2 goals over the international break, expect him to continue his form against a poor outfit

Strength: 6.5/10 Stake:2.75 Odds:10/11 Book: Bet365

Selection: Fulham vs Hull

Bet: over 11 corners

Info: Usually a lot of corners both at the Cottage and in games involving Hull. Expect Stephen Hunt to fire the crosses in

Strength: 7.25/10 Stake:4 Odds:1/1 Book: Bluesquare

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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