The field is so strong this week in Portugal and the prices at the favourite end of things so miserly that I wasn't going to bother with the Portugal Masters but after further study of the field, the odds are so poorly compiled this week and lob sided in favour of the 'top' players that there is plenty of value in shooting for the seriously long odds players for E/W place value.

The course is widely considered a big hitters course, not unlike last week where Ross McGowan destroyed the field. The whole resort is one of serious relaxation and weather is expected to be great.

FREE expert Portugal Masters VALUE picks
-0.5pts E/W Darren Clarke @ 80/1(Ladbrokes) Clarke is at home in Portugal. He loves it over there and knows the course well. At the Alfred Dunhill 2 weeks ago he showed his form of old but seems distracted last week. A return to Portugal could see him play some of his best golf

-0.5pts E/W Daniel Vanscik @ 150/1 (Bet365) This guy is the definition of a 'bomber', self confessed lover of the course and was leader after 3 days here 2 years ago. He is a multiple winner on tour and hard to stop if he starts fast. Monster price for Vanscik.

- 0.75pts E/W Anders Hansen @ 50/1(Ladbrokes)Doesn't exactly match up to the rest this week in terms of price but I can't over look the fact that the last time we saw him in a competitive tournament, he was in the middle of destroying Nick Dougherty in the viviendi trophy whilst being -10 through 12 holes.

-0.5pts E/W David Lynn @ 110/1(PaddyPower) Showing signs of form of late, capable of going on serious birdie streaks when the putter is hot and has the course form here to merit a one to watch tag

-0.5pts E/W Chapchai Nirat @ 400/1(Bet365) Another big hitter who could potentially go well on a course like this

-0.5pts E/W Marcel Siem @ 125/1(PaddyPower) Another who springs to mind when you're after big hitting birdie makers, the emotional Siem is also finding some form just now and is over way priced @ those odds

Tags: Expert golf picks, value bets, Portugal masters betting, outsiders
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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