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PGA TOUR GOLF: FRYS.COM OPEN BETTING

Experience The Key
The Fall series continues this week on the PGA Tour golf circuit as the players make their way to the Raptor course at Grayhawk for the Frys.com Open in Scottsdale, Arizona which is home for a number of PGA tour top pros including Pat Perez and Aaron Baddeley and while their experience of the course should stand them in good stead, it is experience mainly in terms of age that i'll be focusing on this week..... Click link for expert Frys.com open golf betting preview /picks



As per usual in the fall series, the field is pretty wide open and there is no 'man to beat' as such although bookie's favourite Mike Weir has made the course his own over the last couple of years.

The Raptor course at Grayhawk plays 7,125 yards long to a par of 70. Key this week is accuracy and placement(off the tee) which is why I mentioned experience will be of benefit. Some of the younger guys who like to just get up on the tee and bomb it down there will find themselves in trouble here as the course is littered with severely penalising bunkers, both on the fairways and around the greens. The winner this week will be someone who plotted his way around the course, avoiding most of these hazards and who placed his ball in prime position on the fairways to be able to attack the pins.

FREE Frys.com Open VALUE Picks

-1pt E/W D.J Trahan @ 40/1 (Bet365) I tipped Trahan last week and after a poor opening round of even par, he rallied to get himself into contention only to put it in the water on the 71st. He is the man coming into form and has the game for this course.

-1pt E/W Tim Petrovic @ 40/1 (Ladbrokes) Ticks all the right boxes from above as well as being 1 of the best scramblers on tour. Capable of going low as he proved last week.

-0.75pts E/W George McNeill@ 45/1 (Bet365) Tasted victory last week before eventually losing the playoff to Martin Laird, McNeill is only beaten by Weir on course form here over the past 2 years

-0.75pts E/W Mark Wilson @ 66/1 ( Bags of experience, accurate, good scrambler, decent form and knows how to win when he gets in position (Ladbrokes)

Sleeper Watch
-0.5pts E/W Chris Riley @ 125/1 ( StanJames) Riley is one of the most accurate on tour as well as being 1 of the top putters. He had a solid tournament last week and has shown some form of old this year in general

-0.5pts E/W John Mallinger @ 80/1 (Betfred ) Again, a good showing last week and has some decent course form on the Raptor

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.