Experience The Key
The Fall series continues this week on the PGA Tour golf circuit as the players make their way to the Raptor course at Grayhawk for the Open in Scottsdale, Arizona which is home for a number of PGA tour top pros including Pat Perez and Aaron Baddeley and while their experience of the course should stand them in good stead, it is experience mainly in terms of age that i'll be focusing on this week..... Click link for expert open golf betting preview /picks

As per usual in the fall series, the field is pretty wide open and there is no 'man to beat' as such although bookie's favourite Mike Weir has made the course his own over the last couple of years.

The Raptor course at Grayhawk plays 7,125 yards long to a par of 70. Key this week is accuracy and placement(off the tee) which is why I mentioned experience will be of benefit. Some of the younger guys who like to just get up on the tee and bomb it down there will find themselves in trouble here as the course is littered with severely penalising bunkers, both on the fairways and around the greens. The winner this week will be someone who plotted his way around the course, avoiding most of these hazards and who placed his ball in prime position on the fairways to be able to attack the pins.


-1pt E/W D.J Trahan @ 40/1 (Bet365) I tipped Trahan last week and after a poor opening round of even par, he rallied to get himself into contention only to put it in the water on the 71st. He is the man coming into form and has the game for this course.

-1pt E/W Tim Petrovic @ 40/1 (Ladbrokes) Ticks all the right boxes from above as well as being 1 of the best scramblers on tour. Capable of going low as he proved last week.

-0.75pts E/W George McNeill@ 45/1 (Bet365) Tasted victory last week before eventually losing the playoff to Martin Laird, McNeill is only beaten by Weir on course form here over the past 2 years

-0.75pts E/W Mark Wilson @ 66/1 ( Bags of experience, accurate, good scrambler, decent form and knows how to win when he gets in position (Ladbrokes)

Sleeper Watch
-0.5pts E/W Chris Riley @ 125/1 ( StanJames) Riley is one of the most accurate on tour as well as being 1 of the top putters. He had a solid tournament last week and has shown some form of old this year in general

-0.5pts E/W John Mallinger @ 80/1 (Betfred ) Again, a good showing last week and has some decent course form on the Raptor

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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