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PGA Euro Tour Golf: Madrid Masters Betting

Go big in Madrid
America takes a break this week for the Presidents cup but the European Golf Tour is in full swing with the Madrid Masters the next stop on route to Dubai, and home favourite Sergio Garcia will be aiming to please the locals but the smart money will be on the players with long odds...Stay tuned for Madrid Masters Preview/Picks
Tags: Madrid Masters betting, Presidents Cup Betting, expert value golf picks

The Madrid Masters this year will be played at the Centro De Golf Nacional so there is little recent course form to go on although the 2007 Open De Espana was played here and this week's defending champion Charl Schwartzl was also the winner of that event making him a clear danger man this week alongside bookie favourite Sergio Garcia.



The course Centro De Golf Nacional itself is of average length, playing about 7,250 yards long and is very exposed making wind a factor if if gets up. It's quite a hilly course with average width fairways. The rough in 2007 was up and very penal but that event was played in april of that year. The greens are expected to be running pretty slow giving the mediocre putters an escape clause.

Nic's picks men to beat:

Sergio Garcia (8/1) and Charl Schwartzl (25/1) -conditions could play into home locals hands and it doesn't take a genius to make him favourite but it does take a fool to back him at those odds. Charl, as mentioned, loves it in spain and on this course as well.

FREE expert VALUE Madrid Masters picks:
-0.75pts E/W Ricardo Gonzalez @ 50/1 (Bet365) Big hitting Argentinian in fine form this year and tends to do well in Spain. Wide open fairways should suit.

-0.75pts E/W Bradley Dredge @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes) Quality Welsh man is back on form this season and had a good Open de Espana on this course in 2007

-0.75pts E/W Niclas Fasth @ 80/1 (Ladbrokes) Another who has had a resurgence of form this year and 80/1 is a fabulous E/W price

-0.75pts E/W Peter Lawrie @ 125/1 (Betfred ) Too big a price on a guy that regularly does well in spain, not to mention on this very course in 2007

- 0.75pts E/W Louis Oosthuizen @ 66/1 (Hills) Another the course may suit being so open and just starting to show signs of the fantastic form that he began the golfing season with. A win is just around the corner for talented South African

Sleeper Watch
-1pt Manuel Quiros top 20 finish @ 20/1(Sky Bet) Quiros tied for 30th in the Spanish Open 2007 at the Centro De Golf Nacional and is whopping odds to go 1 step further with 2 years more experience under his belt

-1.5pts Jorge Campillo top 20 finish @ 13/2 (Sky Bet) Another home boy that's shown signs of his talent this year and could go well with the locals backing him

Presidents Cup Betting
-1.5pts E/W Tim clark top points scorer @ 33/1 (Sky Bet) A course of the Type Clark excels on and Clark is fond of matchplay situations with Tiger Woods one of his casualties this year

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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