Turning Stone Resort Championships Betting Preview/ Picks

The Fall series on the PGA golf tour kicks off this week with the Turning Stone Resort championships at Atunyote G.C, the only PGA tour course on native American soil. Through my betting experience, I've found that these types of tournaments are the biggest money winners as the compilers don't seem to know where they're at. IE: A lot of the big names are missing so they often peg the wrong men as favourites, leaving massive prices on guys who are just as likely(if not more likely) to pick up a win. My records would prove this having picked winners such as Ryan Palmer(150/1) in the fall series last year and picked winners this year in weaker events like Rollins(40/1) in the Reno Tahoe and Bo Van Pelt(50/1) in the U.S Bank. This week fits the same mould and there's a lot of value out there.

A Bomber's Paradise

The course itself is 1 of the easier courses on tour(although last year played tough due to bad weather)albeit playing almost 7,500 yards long. The Tom Fazio design is built on a pretty open parkland area and the fairways are very generous and it is set up for the monster hitters. It features large undulating greens set to run at 12 on the stimp. As well as length off the tee, par 5 performance is the key stat of the week. No doubt the winner will come from the guys who go low over 16 par 5 holes and all my picks will be based around this information.

FREE Turning Stone Resort championships Picks:

-1.25pts E/W John senden @ 35/1 - Senden is in the middle of some good form right now and just take a look at his key(for this week) 2009 stats - GIR%:1st - Total Eagles:3rd - Total birdies:7th and most importantly Par 5 performance:1st. Having also had a top 5 here before, he is most definitely the man to look out for this week.
Book: StanJames

-1.25pts E/W Michael Letzig @ 66/1(- Letzig is a very underrated player who people forget has been out in the final group on sunday with Tiger Woods recently. Competent all round game, big hitter and ranked 22nd in all round ranking as well as being in the top 20 in birdies, eagles and par 5 performance, he is my big underdog pick this week.
Book: PaddyPower

-1.25pts E/W Charlie Hoffman @ 50/1 - Hoffman has had a really good and consistent season and especially in the tournaments with weak(er) fields, he has been a factor. All his stats make him a prime favourite for this championship never mind 50/1
Book: PaddyPower

-1.25pts E/W Rory sabbitini @ 40/1 - Tempermental sabbitini loves playing on courses like these and off the back of a good tournament 2 weeks ago has the current form and if he gets in position, he knows how to win. He's a man that can go wire-to-wire without being phased.
Book: Ladbrokes

-1.25pts E/W Matthew Goggin @ 50/1 - With Steve Marino having withdrawn, that leaves a place for shortlist pick no. 6 who is on my "ones to watch" list this year. Stats aren't great this year but he has had 2 top 5's on this course in last 2 starts so horses for courses and all that.....
Book: Sky Bet

Tags: Expert golf picks, Turning stone resort championship value picks, PGA Tour golf bets
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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