The East Lake golf course, host to the Tour Championship for many years, rounds up this year's Fedex Cup as usual and the 10mil prize is anyone's for the taking, with the current top five all being able to guarantee themselves the cup with a win at the Tour championship.

The East Lake course itself will play 7,154 yards long to a par of 70 and will be set up to test the world's best to the extreme. There's been plenty of rain falling on the course of late so it will play longer than it should and the rough will be up and thick, both around the greens and along the fairways. Accuracy is the key and patience will be important. In terms of Accuracy, GIR% is the no. 1 key stat this week as any greens missed, especially on the short side, will leave you with a treacherous up and down.

Nic's Picks man to beat(W/O Woods): Padraig Harraington - In fine form now, best scrambler on tour and patient as they come

Free expert Tour championship value picks:
This week, I'm going to turn the bookie's favourite list almost upside down and side completely with the outsiders. There's no value whatsoever to be had backing the players at the favourite's end of things.

-1.25pts E/W Ernie Els @ 20/1 (W/O Woods) - The big man has shown a resurgence of form of late and his record at East Lake is very good with 6 recent enough top 10's

-0.75pts E/W John Senden @ 50/1 (W/O woods) - 1 of the players least fancied by the bookmakers but they mustn't know much(anything) about the course and this mans stats. No. 1 in GIR%(key stat this week) and is free rolling having got into the event by the skin of his teeth
Book: (totesport)

-0.75pts E/W Stewart Cink @ 40/1 (W/O woods) - another the bookies have written off, supposedly down to his course form which doesn't make for great reading but then again, neither did his form at past British Opens. Cink has stepped his game up a notch this year and will have the locals cheering him on at the Tour championship

A market this week in the Tour championship that is strongly catching my attention is the "To shoot lowest round" market. Skybet and Paddypower are going E/W places 1-4 odds 1-4 on this and there is some real value here IMO. Straight away I can rule out about half the field who are more 'steady eddies' than low number shooters. I went looking for some picks at big odds that I know are capable of making a lot of birdies and going low on any given day and 2 picks jumped right out at me:

-1.25pts E/W Geoff Ogilvy to shoot lowest round @ 25/1 - Ogilvy is capable of serious birdie streaks and low rounds. He proved this at Memorial earlier in the year when he shot -9 and Tiger Woods didn't believe the interviewer. This course will set up similar to Memorial and Ogilvy, who is coming into form, has also gone low here before, shooting a 62 a few years back.

-1.25pts E/W Steve Marino to shoot lowest round @ 40/1 - Showing some good form of late but unable to keep it going over 4 rounds. Marino is way ahead of everyone on the PGA Tour golf circuit in terms of birdies made over the last few years. He's really accurate with his irons and fires at the pins.
Book: paddypower betting

-1.25pts E/W Kenny Perry to shoot lowest round @ 40/1 - After doing more careful research, you couldn't get a course that fits into kenny's hands more. He was on my radar already but his form is not great but with the course now playing longer due to rainfall and with a premium on hitting greens UNDER the hole, he's worth a shot at these odds to get a flawless round in.
Book: (general)
Added @ 12:20 on thur sept 24th

Tags: Tour championship betting, PGA tour golf picks, Fedex cup,Expert golf Value picks
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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