Premiership/European football Picks Oct 3-5th

FREE European football/premiership betting picks:


Selection: Atletico vs Zaragoza

Bet: Diego Forlan anytime scorer

Info: Zaragoza play expansive attacking football which will leave gaping holes for the deadly forlan to exploit

Strength: 70% Stake: 3pts Odds: 6/4 Book: Coral

Selection: Hertha Berlin vs Hamburg

Bet: Hamburg win

Info: Hapless Hertha managerless and seriously lacking firepower, Hamburg should roll them over albeit away from home

Strength: 70% Stake: 3.75pts Odds: 3/4 Book:Betfair

Selection: Sevilla vs Real madrid

Bet: Fabiano anytime scorer

Info: Madrid always give up chances and Luis Fabiano is currently 1 of the most potent strikers in the world

Strength: 50% Stake: 2.25pts Odds: 9/4 Book: Sky Bet


Selection: Sevilla vs Real madrid

Bet: Goal line over 3.0

Info: As mentioned Madrid always give up chances and Sevilla are likely to take them. Madrid themselves have been averaging over 3 goals(for) per game

Strength: 75-80% Stake: 4pts Odds: 1.85 Book: Bet365

Selection: Racing vs Valencia

Bet: Goal line over 2.75

Info: Both teams matches this season have been averaging approx. 4 goals per game and no reason why it should stop come sunday

Strength: 75-80% Stake: 4.5pts Odds: 1.91 Book: Bet365

Selection: Aston Villa vs Man City

Bet: over 2.5 goals

Info: Both teams with serious pace on the counter attack which could make for explosive game

Strength: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 1/1 Book: Bet365

Selection: Aston Villa vs Man City

Bet: over 11 corners

Info: As mentioned, both teams with serious pace to get in behind eachother's defense, which is the key to corners as well as plenty of action in the final third which is very likely

Strength: 75% Stake: 4pts Odds: 10/11 Book: Extrabet

Tags:Expert football picks, premiership betting, bundesliga, value bet

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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