Omega European Masters Picks

As mentioned, if you put me on the spot right now for the Omega european Masters, I'd peg Rory McIlroy as the man to beat this week. He has the perfect game for the course, the raw talent and he should have won here last year but I can't be going near golf picks at a price of 11/1 on any golf tour, that's just daylight robbery. Westwood won't be far behind and Soren Kjeldsen rounds up the trio of men to beat this week. As usual though I'll be looking further down the list for the value

The Omega European Masters as ever will be played in the mountainous terrains of Crans-Sur-Sierre in Switzerland. The Cran course is 1 of the shortest on tour at 6,822 yards and plays even shorter due to altitude. The fairways are tight and treelined and the greens, while pretty slow are all small and shaped like upturned saucers so if you're not spot on with your irons/approach shots, you had better be a good chipper and scrambler!Length on this course can be a real advantage as long as you can keep it relatively straight and out of the forest, as a long tee shot gives you a shorter approach shot, therefore a lot easier with spin control etc to hit the small targets. That and the fact that the par 5's are easily reachable in 2 and there are some reachable par 4's too.

FREE Omega European Masters Picks:

-1pt E/W Oliver Wilson @ 33/1 - Give me 33/1 on Wilson on the european tour and I'll usually take it. Has some course form and is a massive talent who's often good for a place while the breakthrough win will come very soon.

-1pt E/W Alvaro Quiros @ 35/1 - Big hitter is in the middle of some good form and if he keeps it straight(ish) off the tee, could destroy this course.

-1pt E/W Jeev Milkha Singh @ 50/1 - Fully recovered from injury and raring to go after a week off, on the back of a top 20 in the PGA Tour. Top all round game and could feature here.

-1pt E/W Bradley Dredge @ 40/1 - Found some form over the last couple of weeks after a while in the doldrums. Not many have a better record at Crans than Dredge, he obviously loves the course. He also has extra incentive with the Ryder cup qualifying beginning this week as he is Welsh.

Sleeper Watch:
Watch out this week for Thongchai Jaidee (70/1) who is becoming a very competent player all over the world. He had a good finish here last year. Ricardo Gonzalez (80/1), looking through the past results at Crans is a regular on the leaderboard which is somewhat surprising, considering his driving accuracy but the course obviously fits his eye. In great current form too. If it's a real outsider you're after than look no further than Eduardo Molinari (150/1). In great form on the challenge tour and his stats are exactly what's needed for this course. Other notable huge prices are last year's winner Lucquin(who lives only 2 hours away) and Jose manuel Lara who has good course form.

-2.5 pts Thongchai Jaidee top 20 finish @ 11/4
Book: paddypower betting

-2.5 pts Ricardo Gonzalez top 20 finish @ 11/4
Book: paddypower betting

-1.5 pts Eduardo Molinari top 20 finish @ 11/2
Book: paddypower betting

Tags: Expert Omega European Masters picks, European Tour golf value picks, free golf value expert picks
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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