Mercedes Benz Championship Picks

Forget short priced picks Stenson, Westwood and Hansen etc, this week's man to beat at the Mercedes Benz Championship is 1 Ross Fisher. Anyone who has designs on this trophy should be looking over his shoulder towards Fisher albeit that Fisher has had a few weeks off. Of course as usual, I won't be backing ANY of the aforementioned Mercedes Benz favourites as there is no value there but on a course that sets up like the London club, it's playing into Fisher's hands.

Nic's Value Picks man to beat: Ross Fisher - Loves course like this as his record here would prove.

Gut Larchenhoff Course (Mercedes Benz Championship):
Medium length at just under 7,300 yards long (par 72), the Gut Larchenhoff Jack niclaus designed course can be a severe test with all sorts of trouble awaiting any golfer that's not on their game. Half the course has water trouble and with thick and penal rough for both errant tee shots and approach shots, high numbers can easily be recorded. For the on form golfer though, hit the fairways and greens and there are birdies to be had, it's not all doom and gloom! Quite an exposed course so wind can also be a big factor here if it gets up.

FREE Mercedes Benz championships Value Picks:

-1pt E/W Graeme McDowell @ 30/1 - 'Gmac' has good course form here and warmed up with a decent performance last week after a short break. He has the game for the course. If the wind does get up, all the better for Gmac.
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W Nick Doherty @ 35/1 - In a recent interview, Doherty said that his few weeks off have really helped and he is now "Striking the ball better than ever". Recent win in Germany at the BMW will psych him up just nicely too.

-1pt E/W Chris Wood @ 66/1 - Added in an extra pick this week beacuse of the whopping value in this massive overprice. Long and straight, competent in the wind and a good scrambler, coming off the back of a decent Omega Masters.

-1pt E/W Simon Dyson @ 35/1 - Dyson probably playing the best golf of his life just now. Confidence is way up and he has the game for this course.

-1pt E/W Jamie donaldson @ 45/1- 3 top 6's in his last 4 starts, Donaldson is well and truly recovered from nagging injury problems and looks like a win is just around the corner

Winning Golf Betting Tips:

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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