BMW Championship

The BMW Championship 2009 will once again return to Cog Hill G.C but the course won't be the same course that hosted the 2007 BMW Championship. It's undergone serious renovations conducted by Rees Jones and the greens are now much faster and trickier, the bunkers are a lot deeper and this week at the BMW, pin positions will be a serious test, making strategic play and accurate ball striking the premium. The course will play about 7,386 yards and accuracy is a must so this week the value picks will focus on the more experienced players with games relying on placement and course management.

Nic's value picks man to beat: Jim Fuyrk - Recent course form at Cog Hill second to none and in good current form.

FREE expert VALUE BMW Championship picks:
(All picks W/O Woods)

-1pt E/W Mike Weir @ 50/1 - If not for a quad early in the last round at the Deutsche bank, he'd have been challenging. Excels around playoffs time.

-1pt E/W Zach Johnson @ 33/1 - Course management is one of his key attributes as well as putting. Good performance last week and one who knows how to win when he gets in position unlike the torrent of bottlers I've had recently.
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W Scott Verplank @ 33/1 - Vast experience and one of the most accurate on tour. Has been is superb form of late and got the tast of victory last week. also has the added motivation of the presidents cup.
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W David Toms @ 60/1 - No 1 on tour in driving accuracy, top putter and if it's course management and strategy you want, there's not many better than Toms. His next win isn't far away.
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W Lucas Glover @ 45/1 - Glover is ranked no. 1 in total driving therefore is a standout pick for this course. He has got his putting sorted out this year hence why he has had such a good season
Book: paddypower betting

Tags: Expert golf picks, BMW Championship, Free value picks
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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