BMW Championship

The BMW Championship 2009 will once again return to Cog Hill G.C but the course won't be the same course that hosted the 2007 BMW Championship. It's undergone serious renovations conducted by Rees Jones and the greens are now much faster and trickier, the bunkers are a lot deeper and this week at the BMW, pin positions will be a serious test, making strategic play and accurate ball striking the premium. The course will play about 7,386 yards and accuracy is a must so this week the value picks will focus on the more experienced players with games relying on placement and course management.

Nic's value picks man to beat: Jim Fuyrk - Recent course form at Cog Hill second to none and in good current form.

FREE expert VALUE BMW Championship picks:
(All picks W/O Woods)

-1pt E/W Mike Weir @ 50/1 - If not for a quad early in the last round at the Deutsche bank, he'd have been challenging. Excels around playoffs time.
Book:

-1pt E/W Zach Johnson @ 33/1 - Course management is one of his key attributes as well as putting. Good performance last week and one who knows how to win when he gets in position unlike the torrent of bottlers I've had recently.
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W Scott Verplank @ 33/1 - Vast experience and one of the most accurate on tour. Has been is superb form of late and got the tast of victory last week. also has the added motivation of the presidents cup.
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W David Toms @ 60/1 - No 1 on tour in driving accuracy, top putter and if it's course management and strategy you want, there's not many better than Toms. His next win isn't far away.
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W Lucas Glover @ 45/1 - Glover is ranked no. 1 in total driving therefore is a standout pick for this course. He has got his putting sorted out this year hence why he has had such a good season
Book: paddypower betting

Tags: Expert golf picks, BMW Championship, Free value picks

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here
Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
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    6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.