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Alfred Dunhill Links Picks

Sky Bet and Boylesports go 6 places E/W for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championships



There is so much quality in the field this year in the Alfred dunhill Links championship that I was torn between putting this week's whole pot on only 3 players up near the top of the elite list, leaving the tournament alone altogether or doing the usual and going further down for the real value. Strangely enough I've not really opted for any of the above.



Instead the main focus will be on another side market just as last week which yielded massive profits. That market this week will be "First round Leader" because as we know, players will be teeing it up on 3 different courses come thursday morning and what the bookies don't seem to have taken into consideration is that 1 of those courses(Kingsbarns) is much easier than the other 2. So early starters at Kingsbarns on Thursday and at big odds will be the focus.

The Alfred Dunhill Links pro-am tournament is a tournament the players very much enjoy each year and players that tend to do well are the ones that are patient and can have a bit of fun with the celebs, as well as players that are competent links players. This year as per the last few, the tournament will use 3 differnet courses in St. Andrews, Kingsbarns and Carnoustie so obviously every aspect of a golfer's game will be tested. Kingsbarns is the easy 1 of the 3 with the low rounds tending to come there so as mentioned the "first round leader" market will be the main area of betting this week.

First round Leader Picks:

-1pt E/W Alexander noren @ 50/1

-1pt E/W Richard Green @ 66/1

-1pt E/W Graeme Storm @ 80/1

All tee up early at Kingsbarns on Thursday morning and all are capable of going low as well as in good recent form.

All prices with Hills

Dunhill Links outright betting:

- 1pt E/W Ross Fisher @ 18/1 - Fisher has good tournament form and loves links golf

- 1pt E/W Gmac Dowell @ 30/1 - The best outright E/W pick this week in terms of value and another lover of links golf

- 1pt E/W Soren Hansen @ 20/1 - This week's man to beat has really turned it up over the last few weeks.Went low here in round 1 last year and finished in the top 10.

All prices with Sky Bet


Sleeper watch
-2.25 pts David Howell top 20 finish @ 7/1 (totesport)
Howell coming back to some form and always enjoys events like this

-1.75pts Thomas aiken top 20 finish @ 6/1 (totesport)
aiken had a top 10 last year in this event and capable of firing really low rounds

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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