Alfred Dunhill Links Picks

Sky Bet and Boylesports go 6 places E/W for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championships

There is so much quality in the field this year in the Alfred dunhill Links championship that I was torn between putting this week's whole pot on only 3 players up near the top of the elite list, leaving the tournament alone altogether or doing the usual and going further down for the real value. Strangely enough I've not really opted for any of the above.

Instead the main focus will be on another side market just as last week which yielded massive profits. That market this week will be "First round Leader" because as we know, players will be teeing it up on 3 different courses come thursday morning and what the bookies don't seem to have taken into consideration is that 1 of those courses(Kingsbarns) is much easier than the other 2. So early starters at Kingsbarns on Thursday and at big odds will be the focus.

The Alfred Dunhill Links pro-am tournament is a tournament the players very much enjoy each year and players that tend to do well are the ones that are patient and can have a bit of fun with the celebs, as well as players that are competent links players. This year as per the last few, the tournament will use 3 differnet courses in St. Andrews, Kingsbarns and Carnoustie so obviously every aspect of a golfer's game will be tested. Kingsbarns is the easy 1 of the 3 with the low rounds tending to come there so as mentioned the "first round leader" market will be the main area of betting this week.

First round Leader Picks:

-1pt E/W Alexander noren @ 50/1

-1pt E/W Richard Green @ 66/1

-1pt E/W Graeme Storm @ 80/1

All tee up early at Kingsbarns on Thursday morning and all are capable of going low as well as in good recent form.

All prices with Hills

Dunhill Links outright betting:

- 1pt E/W Ross Fisher @ 18/1 - Fisher has good tournament form and loves links golf

- 1pt E/W Gmac Dowell @ 30/1 - The best outright E/W pick this week in terms of value and another lover of links golf

- 1pt E/W Soren Hansen @ 20/1 - This week's man to beat has really turned it up over the last few weeks.Went low here in round 1 last year and finished in the top 10.

All prices with Sky Bet

Sleeper watch
-2.25 pts David Howell top 20 finish @ 7/1 (totesport)
Howell coming back to some form and always enjoys events like this

-1.75pts Thomas aiken top 20 finish @ 6/1 (totesport)
aiken had a top 10 last year in this event and capable of firing really low rounds
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

Buy my Golf Betting Book £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle

<b>Buy my Golf Betting Book</b> £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle
Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship