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RENO TAHOE OPEN PICKS

As mentioned, it's the perfect opportunity for some of the tour's 'lesser' known players so to speak to grab a victory but don't doubt for a second that there are some top players at the Reno Tahoe Open and what's more, available at very good value prices.

The Jack Niclaus designed Montreux golf course is no easy track, winding through some forest land full of tall pines and with all sorts of elevation changes and drops. The Reno Taho open course plays about 7500 yards long but doesn't seem like it as the ball flies due to the course being at altitude.



Reno Tahoe Open golf picks:

Note:get on fast, these prices will fall. Quick and hard.

-1pt E/W Vaughn taylor E/W @ 33/1(stanjames) Loves the course. Winner of back to back opens here in the mid 2000's and in the mix last week

-1pt E/W John Rollins E/W @ 33/1 (general) You may be surprised to know that Rollins is one of the money leaders on the tour. Has a couple of 2nd's this season as well as here last year and a top 10 last week. No better chance for a win.
Bet update: 16pts lay John Rollins @ 1.45(exchanges)liability = 7.2pts (currently 4 stroke advantage after 54 holes)
Updated @ 11:45 on 09/08/2009

-1pt E/W Mark Wilson @40/1(general) Top quality player just hitting form. Knows how to win when he gets in position. Top 10 here last year

-1pt E/W Ben Crane @ 25/1 (general) Not usually a Crane backer as he's let me down a lot but in a modest field, off the back of a good finish last week and with decent course form behind him, I'd be silly not to.VOID (non runner)

unfortunately Crane who was a big fancy will not be competing in this one anymore so instead Jonathan Byrd is next on my shortlist

-1pt E/W Jonathan Byrd @ 40/1 (general) Good all round game and when on form can be a real winning threat. Good performance last week and a top 10 here last year

-1pt E/W Rodney Pampling @ 40/1 (general) His missed cut last week has made his odds so big but don't let that fool you, he only barely missed it and he's way overpriced in a field like this


Sleepers(massive odds players to keep an eye out for)
Kevin Stadler (150/1) can go low, has been shooting some great rounds recently and great finish here before.

-0.5pts E/W Kevin Stadler @ 150/1 (general)Monster price worth a bet
-1.5pts top 20 finish @ 13/2(paddypower)over twice as big a price as other firms

Harrison Frazer(80/1) and Will McKenzie(80/1) have both been showing some form lately and both have previous at the Reno Tahoe Open

-2pts mckenzie top 20 finish @ 10/3(paddypower)

-2pts Frazar top 20 finish @ 3/1(paddypower)

-1.5pts Rich Barcelo top 20 finish @ 13/2(paddypower) Who? Who indeed. Home town native is 7th in nationwide tour money leaders, accurate as well as long off the tee, a perfect combo to do well here.

Tags: Reno Tahoe Open, pga golf betting, Renoe Tahoe picks

Last updated @ 01:14 on Tue august 4th 09

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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