The Bridgestone Invitational at Firestone CC, playing at 7,400 yards long is 1 of the toughest courses the players will visit all year. Depending on the height of the rough, it can be almost unplayable. 2 years ago Woods was the only one to break par with players claiming that the rough was just unfair. Last year at the Bridgestone Invitational, it was a little fairer @ only 2" long but keeping the ball in play was still a MUST off the tee as the pin positions require hitting not only the fairways but the right part of the fairways. The greens roll faster than most on tour so it's pretty much an all round test of golf and the cream generally rise to the top.

-0.75 pts E/W Luke Donald W/O Woods @ 40/1 (general) Hitting some serious form, fairly accurate off the tee, good form at Firestone and one of the best putters around. Will win soon.

-0.75pts E/W Mahan W/O Woods @ 25/1(general) Top player starting to hit his best form of the season. Great driver and one of the most accurate with his irons and when the putter is hot, it's seriously hot.

-0.75pts E/W Z. Johnson W/O Woods @ 45/1 (general) You want placement from the tee? Not many more reliable than Zack. Good record here and great putter on fast greens. Having the best season of his career so far.

-0.75pts E/W Sean o' Hair W/O woods @ 50/1 (stanjames) One of the biggest young talents around missed the cut at the RBC and had last week off, hence the stupid price. Don't be surprised to see him contending on a course he likes.

-3.5pts Robert allenby top 20 finish @ 3/1(skybet) Horses for courses and there's no better suited to firestone than the talented Aussie ball striker. Don't see a win (although it wouldn't surprise me) but Allenby is a regular in the top 25 here and more of the same this week

1pt Charles Howell@ 8/1 and 1pt Cameron Beckman top 20 finish @ 8/1 (skybet, paddypower) Both are twice the price they should be and estimate is approx 40% that 1 will break into the top 20 meaning good value

-1.5pts Stuart appleby top 20 finish @ 3/1(skybet) Some decent current form, good record at WGC events and top 20 here last 2 years

Tags: PGA tour golf betting, Bridgestone Invitational picks

Last updated 14:47 on 5th august 2009
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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