Midweek Premiership/Carling Cup/European Football Value Betting picks

FREE expert value football betting picks:

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Selection: Double

Bet: City win vs Palace/Spurs win vs Doncaster

Info: Both second teams are nearly as strong as their first and there will be alot of players out to prove that they deserve a first team place

Strength: 6/10 Stake: 3pts Odds: 2.2 Book:

Selection: Arsenal vs Celtic

Bet: Jack Wilshere anytime scorer(Void if non starter)Void

Info: With Arsenal all but through and a trip to Old Trafford waiting at the weekend, Wenger may rotate his team with Wilshere coming in in one of the 3 attacking spots which makes 4/1 a massive price

Strength: 3/10 Stake: 1pt Odds: 4/1 Book: Best prices on golf and football

Selection: Atletico vs Panathinaikos

Bet: Cisse anytime scorer

Info: with the game likely to be stretched, his pace can get him in behind the Atletico defense

Strength: 4.5/10 Stake:1.75pts Odds: 7/2 Book:

Selection:Atletico vs Panathinaikos

Goals spread (buy)

Info: Pana need at least 2 goals here and Atletico only can play one way. This means plenty of space and an open game shouls result and with the firepower on show, likely to be goals just like the first leg.

Strength: 7.25/10 Stake: 1.5pts spread Line: 3.00 Book:

Selection: Amkar vs Fulham

Bet: Under 2.5 goals

Info: Fulham with a 3-1 first leg advantage will be set up to snuff out the opposition. Hodgson is amaster at that and will try to make it a low scoring borefest

Strength: 7/10Stake: 3pts Odds: 5/6Book:

Selection:LFC vs Villa

corners + 11

Info: Villa had one of the highest C.C's on the road last year and the Anfield pitch is set up for corners

Strength: 7.25/10 Stake: 3pts Odds: 10/11 Book:

Selection:LFC vs Villa

Gerrard to score/LFC win double

Info: Gerrard has a good goalscoring record against the loos villa defense - overpriced

Strength: 4.5/10 Stake: 2pts Odds: 9/4 Book: paddypower betting

Selection: Norwich vs sunderland

Bet:Frasier campbell anytime scorer

Info: Will start up top with either Bent of Jones being given a break and a very good record in this competition

Strength:5/10 Stake:2pts Odds: 15/8 Book:

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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