GOLF BETTING: KLM OPEN PICKS



The KLM OPEN will be played at Kennemer GC in Holland. Kennemer GC is a short, Links Style golf course beside the sea, where the wind is always a factor. Generous enough fairways, although severly undulating, position off the tee is key here to be able to access the pins. Distance control and accurate Irons are crucial to success here and that's why Thomas Levet is a standout pick for the KLM Open. Greens are small and will run pretty slow(10.5), rough is not as big as last year due to dry weather but seriously errant tee shots will leave you in double or even triple bogey territory.

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Free KLM OPEN golf betting picks:

Value picks:

-1pt E/W Thomas Levet @ 25/1 - Tee shot accuracy, Iron accuracy, distance control, small, slow greens - Thomas Levet must be licking his lips. Won earlier in the year in Spain on a similar set up.
Book:

-0.75pts E/W Chris Wood @ 28/1 - Talented all round game, current form and judging by his Open performance is a fan of links golf
Book:

-0.75pts E/W John Bickerton @ 66/1 - Big price for a multiple winner on the European golf tour, with course AND current form behind him.
Book: VOID

-0.75pts E/W Marcus Brier @ 40/1 - Great form on this course, loves links golf and been simmering recently after a monster 2 rounds (-16)on a links in qualifying for the British open. Maybe this is the week he gets the shackles off again
Book: skybet.com


Sleeper watch (big/huge priced value outsiders):

Wil Besseling, a recent graduate from the challenge tour where he showed some real talent and has also shown flashes on the main tour this year, is not in the best of form right now (hence some firms going 300/1) but he is the type of player who can find something out of nowhere and by his own admission, being on the main tour is just a dream, so being back in his homeland this week, he may pull something out of the bag. PP go 16/1 on a top 20 finish.

Jose Manuel Lara has had a decent season and 66/1 means he falls into the 'sleeper' category but he really shouldn't. Some good form this season and has challenged hard a few times, he could very well be a factor on this course. Skybet go 5/2 top 20.

-1.5pts Wil Besseling top 20 finish @ 16/1
Book: paddypower betting

-2.5pts Jose Lara top 20 finish @ 5/2
Book: skybet.com

Tags: KLM Open betting, KLM open picks, Expert value picks
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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