FREE Bundesliga Picks - Week 1 (7th -9th August)

With it being the first day of the season it seems some bookmakers don't know where they are at and the range of prices for the different markets makes me smile. Boylesports are being very generous on the anytime scorer market - do they know something the rest don't or are they just clueless? Either or, you give me 11/8 on Dzeko to score at home against VFB or Gomez @ 13/8 to strike for Bayern against one of the loosest defenses in Bundesliga, I'll bite your hand off, first day or not.

FREE Bundesliga Picks:

good value-1.25 pts Wolfsburg half/fulltime vs VFB @ 12/5 (ladbrokes)yes it's the first day hence why such a cagey stake but generally Wolfsburg hit their opponents hard early on at home and they will be out to prove they are no 1 hit wonders when they start their title defense

good value-1.5pts Edin Dzeko anytime scorer vs VFB @ 11/8(boylesports) Dzeko was on fire last year and VFB are generally loose at the back Edit:false information re: Dzeko injury - he starts

good value-1.5pts Mario Gomez anytime scorer vs Hoffenheim @ 13/8 (boylesports) With the chances Bayern will create for him, 13/8 is value in any match

likely to come in-2.5pts over 2.5 goals Wolfsburg vs VFB @ 7/10(extrabet) I know I said I wouldn't but that price is too hard to exist in what would have been a 7 goal thriller last year so worth a smaller bet!

likely to come in-2.5pts over 2.5 Hoffenheim vs Bayern @ 7/10(extrabet)Ibisevic is back and that means goals. Van Gaal hasn't had enough time to fix bayern's defense yet

Big overprices outsider-0.75pts Alexander Hleb anytime scorer vs Wolfsburg @ 6/1(bluesquare,williamhill) Way too big a price for hleb who's now back where he belongs and likely to play a more advanced role with the departure of gomez

good value- 1pt Kiessling anytime scorer vs Mainz @15/8 (bet365) twice as big a price as anywhere else

Updated @ 14:18 08/08/2009

-2.5pts Sivasspor vs Trabzonspor over 2.5 goals @ 5/4 (exchanges) Sivasspor always good for goals at home but have also been shipping them lately. Trabzonspor score a lot on their travels. Sivasspor looked really loose at the back midweek

Updated @ 15:03 08/08/2009
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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