BARCLAYS PLAYOFFS BETTING PREVIEW/ PICKS

Barclays golf betting preview:

A new course to the PGA Tour this year for the Barclays, in the shape of Liberty National, so with no course form to go on, I have to just find out as much as I can about the Liberty National G.C and match players in good current form to the likely set up.

Obviously there are plenty more factors to go on than the above and come playoff time, wherever the event is hosted, there are a few names that I look for straight away such as Vijay, Weir, Villegas and Stricker, all for different reasons that I will get into later.

The Liberty National course, this year's host for the Barclays is a stonesthrow(not literally) away from the statue of Liberty and this obviously means the course lies beside the harbour/sea, therefore has a "links" type feel to it. Wind can be a massive factor on this exposed course, a point backed up by Steve Stricker after a recent practice round.

The course plays 7,400 yards long and is one of the most expensive courses in the world. This means the fairways and greens are in pristine condition so the accurate hitters/good ball strikers and good putters will have an advantage.

Free expert value betting picks - Barclays: (all picks in the without Woods market)

-1pt E/W Steve stricker W/O Woods @ 25/1 (general) Strick has been here a few days and is getting to grips with the wind factor. He has fond memories of the playoffs so will be looking forward to the challenge of Liberty National. The greens here will suit him big time as well, being 1 of the best putters on tour.
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W Hunter Mahan @ 25/1 W/O Woods (general) You may notice I keep on backing Hunter. This is for 1 reason only - he will win, and soon. Top quality all round golfer could thrive on this course
Book: paddypower betting

-1pt E/W Camillo Villegas W/O Woods @ 50/1 (general) BIG price on a guy that seems to click into gear come the latter part of the season. Back to back winner in the playoffs last year and has shown the ability to handle windy conditions at the British Open.
Book:

-1pt E/W Geoff Ogilvy W/O Woods @ 40/1 (general) Been showing signs of a return of form of late and with this course being mainly exposed, he won't find himself in major trouble with errant tee shots. Probably the best putter on tour bar Woods and could thrive on these greens.
Book:


Sleeper watch

There are a few guys who look very overpriced this week and for me, 2 in particular. No. 1 is Steve Marino (80/1). Marino is a top all round player. Long and straight off the tee, approach shot accuracy right up there, birdie m aking stats better than most and he's coming off the back of a good tournament last week. No.2 is Dustin Johnson(70/1). Big powerful hitter is coming off a good USPGA championship, has a lot of top 20's this year and with the conditions this week likely to be soft, his length could be a real advantage.

-2.5pts Steve Marino top 20 finish @ 4/1
Book: paddypower betting

-2.5pts Dustin Johnson top 20 finish @ 3/1
Book: paddypower betting

Tags: The Barclays, Expert Barclays Picks, golf value betting
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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