The Warwick hills course plays only 7127 yards long (par 72) and has a handful of driveable par 4's as well as big eagle chances on the par 5's. The greens are some of the best on tour and birdies and pin peppering at the Buick Open is the norm. Big hitters don't necessarily have an advantage unless they can keep it straight as the Warwick hills course is a tree lined track, albeit with pretty generous fairways and fair rough. Premium at the Buick open will be on approach shot accuracy and Eagle/birdie making and top golf pick this week - Big hitting Nick watney is 2nd in the Eagle making stats.

Note: I expect Woods to take this 1 down so will be backing the W/O Woods market.

-2.25pts Jim fuyrk to place @ 3/1 (general) This is his course and he wants it badly and in the middle of some tasty form. Definitely the man to beat this week apart from Eldric.

-0.75pts E/W Nick watney W/O woods @ 25/1 (general) Watney can over power this course if his recent good form continues

-0.75 pts E/W Brian Gay W/O Woods @ 22/1(general) Not many players with a better record at the Buick Open than Brian Gay. He thrives on short courses with slick rolling greens and is one of the best putters on tour. More birdies for Gay in store if recent form is anything to go by

-0.5pts E/W Chad Campbell W/O woods @55/1(general) In and out of form Chad Campbell was 15th at The John Deere Classic and enjoys this type of course - overpriced big time

-0.5pts E/W Andres Romero W/O Woods @ 55/1 (general) Powerful Argentinian is another right up there in the birdie/Eagle making department and could do a Nick Watney and also overpower the course if his form from the British open where he tied 13th continues

-1pt Daniel Chopra top 10 finish @ 13/2 (stanjames) has been there or there abouts the last few weeks after swing changes and makes an awful lot of birdies. Was wild off the tee here in 2007 yet still made more birdies than most, loves fast greens.

-0.5pts E/W Jason Day first round leader @ 80/1 (general) starting to find form again and capable of going VERY low on a course like this. Tends to start fast when on form.

Tournament match betting:
-3.5pts Woody austin win vs KJ Choi @ 5/6(stanjames) The compilers have been more on the ball in the last few weeks TMN wise but this is a standout matchup. It's weighted heavily in Austin's favour with Choi having a dreadful year. Austin is -50 on this course for the last few years and from what I hear is "ready for revenge" after last years narrow miss
Tags: Buick open picks, golf betting, PGA tour
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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