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WSOP 2009 - Main Event Betting

The 2009 WSOP is well underway with Brock 'T-Soprano' Parker taking most of the headlines so far. He already has 2 wins to his name which is some feat. Nearly half way through now, the build up is getting more and more exciting as we draw near the main event. Now picking a winner of the main event is similar to taking a number between 1 and 2000 but lets see if we can find some value bets in some exploitable markets!

The first name that springs to mind when you talk about long, drawn out, survival poker tournaments is the Patrik Antonious. For me, 1 of the very top all round pros in the game and a regular at final tables all around the world. Both a tournament and cash game specialist, he has all the attributes to go very far in a big tournament like this and another final table appearance wouldn't surprise anyone regardless of the depth of the field.

Continuing the theme of good looking poker players, another 1 kind of flying under the bookmaker's radar is a new up and coming female pro - Jennifer "Jennicide" Leigh. Some may know of her from posing for FHM and the likes but her poker game should not be underestimated. At 26 years of age, she may well soon be recognised as 1 of the best females on the poker circuit, and backing her in the 'longest lasting female' market could yield some profits.

Another flying under the Radar is a player from the British Isles who I've sat with on a few occasions(a player I don't like sitting with as he scares me and not many do!). He is a player that has won my national event on the EPT 2 times and a tournament specialist, and for me is the best player from the British Isles. His name is Ram Vaswani and is well down the list of the bookmaker's potential winners.

Those are just 3 of many to watch out for in this year's WSOP. Relative unknown/new names such as: Grosspellier, Binger, Brady, Alaei, as well as former winner Huck Seed, female specialist Jennifer Harmon and top players like John Juanda, Allen Cunningham and Gus Hansen are amongst others.

The following are what I see as good value bets to make the event a bit more exciting for us mere mortals stuck watching it on TV!:

(Non runner no bet)

-0.5pts E/W places 1-3 Mads andersson top scandinavian @ 50/1(bet 365)

- 0.75pts win Don Fagan top Irish player @ 33/1 (paddypower)

-0.5pts Patrik Antonious to reach final table @ 125/1(bluesquare)
-0.5pts Ram Vaswani to reach final table @ 150/1 (bluesquare)
-0.5pts Philip Hilm to reach final table @ 125/1 (paddypower)
-0.5pts Tony G to reach final table @ 150/1 (bluesquare)
-0.5pts John Juanda to reach final table @ 100/1(general)
-0.5pts Jeff Lisandro to reach final table @ 200/1 (ladbrokes)
-0.5pts 'Elky' Grospellier to reach final table @ 100/1 (bluesquare)
-0.5pts Barry greenstein to reach final table @ 125/1 (bluesquare)
-0.5pts Arshad Hussain to reach final table @ 150/1 (paddypower)
-0.5pts Daniel alaei to reach final table @ 125/1(ladbrokes)
-0.5pts luca pagano to reach final table @ 150/1 (bluesquare)
-0.5pts Mike sexton to reach final table @ 200/1 (bluesquare)
-0.5pts Paul Wasica to reach final table @ 150/1 (bluesquare)
-0.5pts Mike Binger to reach final table @ 200/1 (bluesquare)
-0.5pts Antonio Esfandari to reach final table @ 200/1(bluesquare)
-0.5pts Huck seed to reach final table @ 200/1(bluesquare)
-0.5pts jon kalmar to reach final table @ 250/1(bluesquare)
-0.5pts David pham to reach final table @ 300/1 (skybet)
-0.5pts Ted forest to reach final table @ 300/1 (skybet)
-0.5pts dutch boyd to reach final table @ 300/1 (bluesquare)

-1pt E/W Jennifer Leigh 'top female' @ 50/1 places 1-9 (1/8 odds)
-1pt Kristy Gazes 'top female' @ 33/1 (boylesports)

-1.25pts Huck seed top former winner @ 12/1 (boylesports, bluesquare)
-1pt Patrick Antonious top Full tilt pro @ 9/1 (paddypower)

-0.75pts Ram Vaswani top GB & Ireland player @ 25/1 (general)
-0.75pts Jon Kalmar top GB and Ireland player @ 33/1 (general)
last updated @ 12:30 July 2nd 2009

Tags: WSOP, main event, Poker, WSOP betting 2009, texas holdem

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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