The last chance for players to get their game in shape before the 2nd major of the year and the likes of Sergio Garcia in particular will be itching to do well. Justin Leonard and David Toms have dominated the leaderboards here in recent years but all 3 are far too short to back. Instead, 2 more that have featured on the leaderboards in the last few years here are on offer at 50's and that's where this week's pot will be aimed. On a course that demands accuracy, the ability to put 4 consistent rounds together and with water hazards everywhere, those 2 players are Brian Gay(already a winner on tour this year) and Scott Verplank. Neither big hitters but 2 of the most accurate on tour and right up there in the stroke average stats which is key on this track. Both represent huge value @ 50's and will no doubt start off on Thursday at about 35's (best price)

-0.75pts E/W Brian Gay @ 50/1 (ladbrokes) Good performance last time out, the game for the course and could be ready to challenge for win no. 2 this year after demolishing the field a couple of months back
-Lay Brian Gay for 16pts @ 1.25(betfair) liability = 4pts
updated @ 20.20 14th june 2009

-0.75pts E/W Scott Verplank @ 50/1 (paddypower) Great course form and played solidly last time out a couple of weeks ago

-0.75pts E/W Woody Austin @ 40/1 (general) Past winner here and good course form in general. Been sniffing around the leaderboards for a few weeks now and being 39th in scoring average, if he puts another 4 good ones together, he will be close

-0.75pts E/W Ben Crane @ 55/1 (stanjames) Crane is 15th in all round ranking. Mr consistency if never really explosive. Has all attributes needed to cope with this course. Good value in that price.

-0.75pts E/W Robert Allenby leader after 54 holes @ 33/1 (williamhill) Again Allenby is 1 of the steadiest on tour but he has serious trouble closing tournaments out so the same price for 54 hole leader is a good 1.

-1.5pts Dean Wilson top 20 finish @ 5/1(totesport) Wilson has a good record here

-0.5pts E/W Graeme McDowell @ 66/1 (coral) too big a price to resist

-1pt Peter lonard top 20 finish @ 14/1 (extrabet) signs of form last week
-0.25pts E/W Lonard @ 400/1 (skybet,stanjames) the definition of value

last edited @ 11.40am 10/06/2009

Tournament match bets:

-3.5pts Nick o' Hern win vs Carl Pettersson @ 4/5 (betfair) Pettersson in woeful form this season and with his wayward driving this is hardly the course where it will turn around for him, while on the other hand o' Hern is 1 of the most accurate on tour

-3pts Ben Crane win vs Andres Romero @ 4/5 (betfair) Romero wild off the tee, may struggle on this course

-2.5pts Allenby to beat Harraington @ 10/11 (williamhill,betfred) Harraington in woeful form and cant find many fairways. wayward drives here and you're swimming

last edited @ 14.32pm 10/06/2009

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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