Memorial Tournament - Aussie win?

Posted by Bryan N

Memorial Tournament - Aussie win?

This week at Muirfield village 1 player catches the eye more than the rest and that player is not one Eldric Woods, it's as I've said on a few occasions a more naturally talented player and probably the guy who's won me the most money with 3 wins for me in the last few years at tasty prices. That player is Geoff Ogilvy. You give me 28/1 on him in any tournament I'll probably take it let alone on a course where his record is pretty good and a course that suits his game with wider than average fairways and snooker table greens. Another pick this week is 1 that the bookies have completely overlooked but again, bombing greens are his speciality. That is another Aussie - Nick o' Hern who has recorded a 22nd, 10th and 6th place finish here in the last 5 years and coming off the back of a competent 22nd last week too means he is striking it well.

0.75pts E/W Geoff Ogilvy @ 28/1 (general) Give him a sniff and he'll be tough to knock off the leaderboard

0.5pts E/W Nick o'Hern @ 125/1 (bluesquare)Not many better putters than this guy on superfast greens

0.5pts E/W Hunter Mahan @ 80/1 (general) not overly confident about a challenge from the enigma that is Mahan but with his high GIR% (which is a good attribute for this course) and bit of extra space on the fairways, the price is very tasty for a player that could easily pop up and win anywhere, anytime.

0.5pts E/W Steve Marino @ 55/1 (general) Torn between Fuyrk and Marino for my last pick but with Fuyrk a bit short @ 25's I've gone with the man who is renound for being a 'streaky player'. 14th in GIR, long off the tee and off the back of a playoff loss last week, don't be surprised to see him sniffing once again even though the course may not be up his street in general.

1.5pts Thomas Aiken top 20 finish @ 8/1 (paddypower) The odds compiler is obviously clueless about Thomas Aiken's abilities. Fantastic value.

1pt Ryan Moore top 20 finish @ 6/1 (paddypower) Likes the course. Recent form is deceptive as courses havn't been suited to his game

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2025/26) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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