Double Crumble - Results

Barring the miraculous double a few weeks back, the golfing season appears to be adapting to a specific theme, that theme being - get yourself into an absolutely fantastic winning position and blow it. Alvaro Quiros and even more so Tim Clark yesterday adding to a long list including, Fisher, Goosen, Howell III, Castano, Mark Brown to name but a few...

Once again yesterday, on the European Tour, Alvaro Quiros only had to get down the 18th hole with a par 4 and the likelihood was he'd take the title, only to cut loose with his drive and fly it 30 yards right of the fairway, clocking an innocent by-stander in the head in the process.

Tim Clark - WHAT does he have to do to win?(rhetorical question) Again, a par needed down 18 to capture his maiden win(his card for the previous 3 rounds on the 18th reading: par,birdie,birdie) and he ends up crashing over the trees and then missing a 10 footer for the win. The first playoff hole, he nails 1 to within 7 feet only to trickle the putt over the edge. The second playoff hole, he puts his approach shot right down the pin only to actually HIT the pin smack in the centre and fly back 25 feet allowing Stricker to hole out for victory.

The latest 2 in a long line of hard luck stories this season it seems. 1 bright note is I took the trade on Tim Clark after letting Quiros ride, even though he reached as low as 1.6 on the exchanges. I wasn't making the same mistake twice. Bring on Memorial and the Welsh Open!

European Open
-1.5pts E/W Ross Fisher First round leader @ 18/1
-0.75pts E/W Soren Hansen @ 50/1
-0.5pts E/W Gonzalo Fdez Castano @ 50/1
-0.5pts E/W Johan Edfors @ 80/1
-0.5pts E/W Alvaro Quiros @ 40/1
-1 pt Marcel Siem top 20 finish @ 6/1
-0.5pts top -10 finish @ 18/1
LOSS = 3.5pts

Crowne Plaza Invitational
-0.75pts E/W Rodney Pampling @ 45/1
-0.5pts E/W Tim Clark @ 35/1
-15pts lay @ 1.4 (exchanges) liability - 6pts
-0.5pts E/W Ted Purdy @ 125/1
-0.5pt E/W David Toms @ 33/1
-1.25pts Mathew Goggin top 20 finish @ 6/1
PROFIT = 13.62pts

Weekend Football
-2pts Patrik Helmes anytime scorer vs Werder Bremen @ 2/1
-1.5pts spread(buy)Bremen vs Leverkusen goals @ 2.9
-2pts Bayer Leverkusen (draw no bet) win vs Bremen @ 6/5
-1.25pts Arturo Vidal anytime scorer vs Bremen @ 9/1
-1.5ptspts wincast - Didier Drogba to score/Chelsea to win FA cup final @ 13/5
-1pt Frank Lampard man of the match vs Everton @ 6/1
-0.5pts John Terry Man of the match vs Everton @ 18/1
-1pt Frank Lampard to score from outside box vs everton @ 7/1
-1pt Marseille to claim French Title @ 9/1
-3pts fourfold:
Atletico win vs Almeria
Valencia win vs Bilbao
Rangers win vs Falkirk
Marseille win vs Rennes
PROFIT = 6.89pts

champions League final betting
-1pt Messi to score 2 or more goals @ 22/1
-1pt Ronaldo AND Messi to score @ 10/1
-1pt 'Cliche betting' "1999" to be said first @ 7/1
-2pts Leo Messi anytime scorer vs UTD @ 11/4
-0.5pts E/W Vidic first goalscorer(unlimited places) @ 28/1
PROFIT = 1.5pts

Weekend football - Final day(premiership)
-3pts(lay) Newcastle for relegation @ 1.6
-4pts(lay) 28 goals or more on final day of premiership @ 1.9
-3pts Westham vs Boro over 11 corners @ 1/1
-2pts Mccarthy anytime scorer vs WBA @ 15/8
-1pt Mccarthy brace @ 9/1
-2pts wincast Arsenal/Van Persie vs stoke @ 13/8
-1.25pts Louis Saha anytime scorer vs Fulham @ 33/10
LOSS =2.8pts

Golf Match Betting
-3pts Hunter mahan win vs Sabbitini @ 10/11
-2.5pts Anthony kim win vs Adam Scott @ 5/6
-2.5pts Anders Hansen win vs Thomas Bjorn@ 10/11
-3pts Oliver Wilson win vs angel Cabrera @ 6/5

Eds Byron Nelson
-0.5pts EW Charlie Wi @ 50/1
-1pt E/W Justin Leonard @ 25/1
-0.5pts E/W Scott Verplank @ 40/1
-1pt Harrison Frazar top 20 finish @ 8/1
LOSS= 5pts

BMW Championship
-0.75pts E/W Oliver Wilson places 1-5 @ 45/1
-0.5pts E/W Ross fisher places 1-6 @ 33/1
-0.5pts E/W Jeev Milkha Singh @ 60/1 places 1-6
-0.5pts E/W Alexander Noren leader after 36 holes
-0.5pts E/W Anders Hansen places 1-6
-1pt marc Warren top 10 finish @ 12/1
LOSS = 2.37pts

TOTAL PROFIT = 1.92pts

OVERALL PROFIT = +108.1pts
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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