Celtic Manor Wales Open - Monty or Pavin?

Sadly not I fear. The 2 Ryder cup captains renew acquaintances this week at the future scene of the next ryder cup but sadly the chances of either landing a victory are slim. But saying that, after Cevear's victory last week, golf is a funny game.In actual fact, there are no real stand out picks this week. None that represent real value that is. Jeev Milka Singh was in @ 30's on Stanjames on monday which would have been nice but it was cut to 22's soon after. Stephen Dodd was on the radar but unfortunately he finished too well last week which priced him up too short for this week. Oosthuizen's price was decent but his low driving accuracy% may be a disadvgantage on this course.

Accuracy and length are both important this week. It's a long track at almost 7,500yards and most fairways have strategically places bunkers and doglegs. It's also an exposed course akin to that of last week and these factors all together lead me to my first pick :

-0.5pts E/W Steve Webster @ 40/1 (general) handled last weeks course great. Accurate off the tee and deceptively long, 40/1 looks good in this field.

-0.5pts E/W Jamie Donaldson @ 55/1(BET365) Regaining form after injury, good finish here last year.

-0.5pts E/W Robert Rock @ 66/1 (betfred) long hitter might be ready to go 1 step better than the Irish open. Big value.

-0.5pts E/W Jose Lara @ 55/1 (bet365) Strong tournament last week and finished 3rd here before

-1pt Frederik Andersson Hed top 20 finish @ 8/1 (skybet) regular on the leaderboards toward the back of last season and beginning to gain some form this year heading to a course he likes
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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