Valero Texas Open


This weeks track - La Cantera was ranked 1 of the easiest courses on tour last year (39/54) and appeals to the 'birdie makers' on tour. Scoring is usually very low with pins there to be attacked.

0.5pts E/W Daniel Chopra @ 50/1 (general) Third here in 2007 and fired a blitz of birdies last week, his failing being a lot of mistakes in between but this course won't be nearly as punishing

0.5pts E/W Jason Day 36 hole leader @ 80/1 (William Hill) Fast starter who makes an awful lot of birdies

0.5pts E/W Heath Slocum @ 100/1 (ladbrokes) Not really found form this year but good record on this course, it fits his eye

0.5pts E/W Dean Wilson @ 50/1 (general) After a more thorough study, the conclusion is that the short hitters form is deceptively good this year and even though he missed the cut last week, his putting was right up there. He has the game for this course as his course form shows.

Tournament match betting

-2pts Dean wilson win vs JJ henry @ 10/11 (totesport) Henry in terrible form this season so far
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich
Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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