Spread your Bread!

Posted by Bryan N

Spread your Bread!

This weekend a few matches catch the eye for potentially a lot of goals and corners. Spread betting could be profitable. wincasts(score/win doubles) in particular matches are tasty prices on the menu as well.

-1.5pts spread (buy) Valencia vs real Madrid goals @ 3.18 (betfair) Could be a repeat of last weeks el gran classico

-1.5pts spread (buy) VFB vs Wolfsburg goals @ 3.2 (sportingindex) Could be wide open game with top quality strikers all bang on form

*note - Any bets involving goalscorers, make sure they are in the starting lineup before placing your bets

-1.5pts Mario Gomez anytime scorer vs Wolfsburg @ 15/8 (boylesports) On form and Wolfsburg leave gaps at the back

-0.75pts spread (buy) Fulham vs Aston villa corners @ 11 (general) small pitch, usually a lot of corners especially when teams like villa come to town

-1.5pts wincast Messi to score/Barca to win vs Villarreal @ 2/1 (bluesquare) Can anyone stop Barca?

-1pt nevland anytime scorer vs Villa @ 7/2 (betfair)(11/4- william hill, bluesquare, paddypower) Great finisher, will get chances if he starts

-1pt alvaro Negredo to score/Almeria to win vs Gijon @ 13/5 (paddypower) massively overpriced - only 8/5 on bluesquare

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2025/26) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips