Olly Wilson take 2 -BMW Championship

Last year I made the mistake a few times of not persisting with some picks for 2/3 weeks in a row, and having my headline pick from the previous week going on to take the title just 1 week later, and I'm not going to risk that with Oliver Wilson. 1 year ago in this tournament he was only beaten in a playoff by Jimenez so he obviously has the game to handle the tight, longish treelined Wentworth course and last week in the Irish open, he was going great guns only to falter in the atrocious weather over the weekend(like many others). Back him to bounceback this week and put in a strong challenge.

-0.75pts E/W Oliver Wilson places 1-5 @ 45/1 (paddypower)As mentioned last week, will win soon

-0.5pts E/W Ross fisher places 1-6 @ 33/1 (boylesports)His length as well as his accuracy of the tee will be an advantage here

-0.5pts E/W Jeev Milkha Singh @ 60/1 places 1-6 (boylesports) was tempted to back him EW for 36 hole leader but the extra place on boylesports leaned me toward the overall

-0.5pts E/W Alexander Noren leader after 36 holes(prices to follow...)Fast starter and GIR stats are right up there which is a stat needed on this course to control your long irons against the swirling winds

-0.5pts E/W Anders Hansen places 1-6 (boylesports) Late pick this week but after further study, everything looks set for a strong challenge from the Dane and with the extra place in boylesports a cut down price of 40's(60's earlier in the week in some firms) is still value

-1pt marc Warren top 10 finish @ 12/1 (general) 4th last time out and will have an advantage on these tricky greens

last edited @ 20.20pm 20/05/2009
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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