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Olly Wilson take 2 -BMW Championship

Last year I made the mistake a few times of not persisting with some picks for 2/3 weeks in a row, and having my headline pick from the previous week going on to take the title just 1 week later, and I'm not going to risk that with Oliver Wilson. 1 year ago in this tournament he was only beaten in a playoff by Jimenez so he obviously has the game to handle the tight, longish treelined Wentworth course and last week in the Irish open, he was going great guns only to falter in the atrocious weather over the weekend(like many others). Back him to bounceback this week and put in a strong challenge.

-0.75pts E/W Oliver Wilson places 1-5 @ 45/1 (paddypower)As mentioned last week, will win soon

-0.5pts E/W Ross fisher places 1-6 @ 33/1 (boylesports)His length as well as his accuracy of the tee will be an advantage here

-0.5pts E/W Jeev Milkha Singh @ 60/1 places 1-6 (boylesports) was tempted to back him EW for 36 hole leader but the extra place on boylesports leaned me toward the overall

-0.5pts E/W Alexander Noren leader after 36 holes(prices to follow...)Fast starter and GIR stats are right up there which is a stat needed on this course to control your long irons against the swirling winds

-0.5pts E/W Anders Hansen places 1-6 (boylesports) Late pick this week but after further study, everything looks set for a strong challenge from the Dane and with the extra place in boylesports a cut down price of 40's(60's earlier in the week in some firms) is still value

-1pt marc Warren top 10 finish @ 12/1 (general) 4th last time out and will have an advantage on these tricky greens

last edited @ 20.20pm 20/05/2009

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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